C on the figures published and are available at present about the behavior of the Venezuelan economy, and through its analysis and projection, we can estimate that at the end of 2009 the main macroeconomic performance will be close to the following figures: a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) close to 2.2% versus 4.8% last year. A national inflation rate of 26.0%, lower than the 30.9% in 2008. A national core inflation rate of 31.0%, equal to last year. Inflation in Caracas in 28.0%, down from 31.9% a year earlier. The core rate of inflation in Caracas in 35.0%, higher than 33.8% in 2008. An unemployment rate of 8.0%, slightly higher than the previous, and a marked deficit of about 8,300 payments billion. In turn, these results are specifically reflected in significant declines in manufacturing, trade, oil and mining, and a significant reduction in specific terms of reserves, not necessarily caused by massive imports payments and obligations, but because interagency transfers.

On the side of its determining the resulting figures, would be associated with the reduction in private consumption, next to 2.0%, the decrease of -12.0% Gross investment, an increase in government consumption 2.5% and an increase in monetary liquidity similar to the previous year (27.0%). At the same time, these determinants are explained by a significant reduction in total real wages, a sharp appreciation of the real exchange rate, a depletion of foreign exchange control system, difficulties in access to imports by the industry, and high and worrying distrust of the latter sector to overflow the intervening conduct of the Government with the firm intention of discouraging private investment and minimize.

Maintained the same policy strategy for 2010 by the authorities, as it appears and also follows from circumstances such as the new reform of the BCV Law to further expand liquidity without real support, stress control and no changes devalue, reduce operational international reserves only four months of imports as shown in the latest balance sheet of the Central Bank (U.S. $ 16,500 million) and continue to intimidate the private productive action, hardly the outcome of the economy for the coming year will be different . For now, given the backlog of necessary adjustments, expectations and looming inflation and higher wage earners and retired people with lower levels of welfare. Without economic efficiency is not social justice.

http://www.elmundo.com.ve/notas.asp?id=3N2&ed=2009x12x17&es=4