It is one of the longest-running and ugliest episodes in the history of the mining industry, and the big losers have been the shareholders. Crystallex International Corp. was blocked from developing the Las Cristinas gold deposit back in mid-2008 by Hugo Chavez's government in Venezuela. There has been no major progress since then, and the next step appears to be international arbitration.

Needless to say, that prospect does not thrill Haywood Securities analyst Kerry Smith. After sticking with the story for years, he has had enough and decided to drop his coverage.

"[Crystallex's] next step would be to seek arbitration, which we expect would be protracted and would essentially turn Crystallex into a litigation story — one to which we bring no particular expertise," Mr. Smith wrote in a note to clients.

He noted that Crystallex continues to burn cash at a rapid rate of about US$1-million to US$1.5-million a month. He estimated that the company exited 2009 with about US$10-million to US$12-million in the bank, but it also has a US$4.7-million interest payment due in January 2010.

His final target price on the stock is a meagre 20¢ a share, about half of the current level. That number assumes a big equity raise to fund Las Cristinas. But Las Cristinas still appears completely out of reach.

"The value of Crystallex is based entirely on the Las Cristinas project, and without this flagship asset, we estimate minimal equity value for the company after repayment of the current debt," Mr. Smith wrote.

Peter Koven