Alvaro Vargas Llosa

Lima — From Wednesday's Globe and Mail Published on Tuesday, Jan. 05, 2010 5:21PM EST Last updated on Wednesday, Jan. 06, 2010 2:42AM EST

There has been abundant talk about Latin America's tilt to the left this past decade, but such chatter will soon become antiquated. Presidential contests in key countries are almost certain to move the region in the opposite direction.

Chile's runoff election this month will probably end the centre-left coalition's two-decade hold on power and the emergence of businessman Sebastian Pinera as a political force. In May, Colombians will vote either for President Alvaro Uribe – if he wins approval for an ill-advised constitutional reform – or for someone who will carry on with his policies. And, according to every poll, Brazilians are likely to pick Jose Serra, the governor of Sao Paulo state, over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's chosen successor in October.

If these indeed turn out to be the results, the ideological shift that was first hinted last year with Ricardo Martinelli's victory in Panama and Porfirio Lobo's election in Honduras will be powerfully reinforced.

But there is more. Peru's left-wing nationalist candidate is fading after almost winning in 2006; a long list of centre-right candidates (a couple of whom coquettishly call themselves centre-left, but are not perceived as such) dominates the polls. And, by all indications, most Argentines support various opponents of the socialist policies of Cristina Kirchner's government. This will make it difficult for her husband, ex-president Nestor Kirchner, should he run next year.

The significance of the tilt to the right is potentially twofold. Could it mean a new wave of reform not seen since the 1990s and a foreign-policy realignment across the continent?

In theory, some of the favoured leaders will aim to make Latin America much more entrepreneurial and economically diversified. The region is still far too dependent on natural resources, its investment levels are too low compared with other newcomers to the development race and its education standards continue to be dismal. But there is no guarantee that the shift in ideological direction will bring meaningful change. Much like their social-democratic rivals, the centre-rightists tend to settle for the status quo. Many seem to have exhausted their reformist ambitions with the liberalization and privatization of the 1990s, which left a sour taste because of the corruption involved.

The tilt to the right could be more momentous in foreign policy, reducing the disproportionate influence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Brazil would stop indulging his whims and providing cover for his geopolitical gamesmanship. Chile would drop its ambiguity toward Venezuela's foreign interventionism, an attitude explained by President Michelle Bachelet's own ideological roots. And the re-emergence of Argentina as modernizing regional leader could deprive Mr. Chavez of much breathing space.

Cutting Mr. Chavez down to size would also help to release some of the pressure Venezuela places on Colombia and Peru. The presence of left-tilting governments in the region has allowed Venezuela to pick fights with Colombia and to delegate to Bolivia's Evo Morales the mission of attacking Peru's president. Colombia's concentration on its war against the narco-guerrillas and the care it has placed on avoiding armed conflict with Venezuela have prevented Bogota from shaking off Mr. Chavez's meddling. In the case of Peru, Lima's difficult relations with neighbouring Chile have made it hard to counter Bolivia's pressure.

Predicting anything in Latin America is mighty risky. But if I were sitting at a desk at Barack Obama's National Security Council or the State Department, I would be preparing for a strange scenario in which a left-leaning American president might find more common ground with right-leaning Latin American leaders than he has been able to find with neighbours too ready to let Venezuela – with Cuba's help – undermine Washington's limited engagement with the region so far.

Alvaro Vargas Llosa is a senior fellow at the Independent Institute.