Chávez isn't on ballot, but is on Venezuelan voters' minds

First of two parts

CARACAS -- Crammed into a narrow gully that runs between high-rise apartment blocks in midtown Caracas, the tiny barrio of Hoyo de las Delicias is virtually invisible to all but the 250 or so families who live in its cinder-block tenements.

But voters in places like this could determine the outcome of Sunday's parliamentary elections, which promise to be the hardest-fought since former lieutenant-colonel Hugo Chávez became president of Venezuela in 1999.

``Little by little, people have begun to wake up,'' says Miguel Acosta, who has lived in Hoyo de las Delicias since it was founded more than 60 years ago. ``This place used to be 80 percent chavista -- now it's the reverse.''

All 165 seats in the single-chamber National Assembly are at stake in the elections, and national polls show just a few percentage points separating the government and opposition. So the opposition Democratic Unity coalition is hoping discontent among former Chávez loyalists in poorer communities like Hoyo de las Delicias will help it wrest control of parliament from the increasingly authoritarian president.

With inflation running at 30 percent, the economy entering its second year of recession and violent crime at unprecedented levels, the outcome ought to be a foregone conclusion. But Chávez, who retains substantial popular support, has once more turned the vote into a plebiscite on his presidency.

The government points to myriad welfare programs or ``missions'' that Chávez provides to Venezuelans, all of which, supporters claim, would be rolled back were the opposition to win the elections.

But touting government programs might not be enough.

MISSING CANDIDATEA week ago, a government candidate for the local constituency was due in Hoyo de las Delicias for the ``reinauguration'' of a tiny basketball court, specially refurbished for the campaign. Although Sports Minister Héctor Rodríguez showed up, the candidate was nowhere to be seen. The audience consisted almost entirely of government officials and Cuban sports trainers.

``That's because she has no support,'' said community leader José Baltazar Pérez. ``No one around here even knows her.''

The sports facility, said Pérez, was a waste of money, since hardly anyone used it. And he pointed to the barrio's real priority -- a gaping 50-foot hole in its one tiny street. The stream that runs below the street has cut the community in two, threatening to undermine homes.

There is evidence that the Chávez administration, which has pledged to govern on behalf of the poor, has devoted resources to residents here. At one end of the street stands a neighborhood clinic belonging to the Barrio Adentro (Inside the Barrio) primary healthcare system. Unlike many such clinics, which have closed for lack of staff, it continues to operate.

But residents complain that government programs lack proper supervision, money is squandered, and -- because the barrio refuses to turn out for party rallies -- their demands are ignored.

The hole in the street has been there for two years.

``Why do you think they haven't repaired it?'' asks Acosta. ``Because there are no votes here.''

The local authorities finally sent a repair crew, but only after the hole was given prominent coverage on the one opposition-run TV channel, Globovisión.

HARSH WORDSThe government says Sunday's election is a showdown between two irreconcilable forces. Chávez has spoken of the need to ``demolish'' the opposition. Government campaign coordinator Aristóbulo Istúriz says, ``Either we liquidate them or they liquidate us.''

``We can't live with a [capitalist] model of society that puts material possessions above people,'' Sports Minister Rodríguez told The Miami Herald. ``We're determined to put an end to a system that exploits people, that kills people.''

The opposition coalition's goals are less apocalyptic, despite claims from government officials that they only want control of the assembly in order to force Chávez from office.

Having boycotted the last legislative elections, in 2005, citing lack of confidence in the electoral authority (known as the CNE), it is bound to make gains. The dozen or so legislators who currently vote against Chávez are defectors from the government coalition, which ignores their views and rubber-stamps all presidential initiatives.

If it obtains 58 seats, thereby depriving the government of its two-thirds majority, the opposition can exert influence on key appointments, such as members of the CNE board. With 67 seats, it can block attempts to give the president powers to legislate by decree. The magic number, however, is 83 -- an assembly majority.

DIVIDED ELECTORATE``To lose his majority in parliament would be a catastrophe for Chávez,'' said constitutional lawyer and former legislator Gustavo Tarre. ``He has already said it would be the beginning of the end for his revolution.''

But Chávez losing the parliament is inconceivable, said Jesse Chacón, who has held several cabinet posts under Chávez, including the information and interior portfolios.

Chacón, who now runs a pro-government polling firm called GIS XXI, says a true projection would require surveys in every constituency, which no one has done. But he says it is possible to make a good guess, based on national figures and historical trends. For him, the worst-case scenario for the government would see it retaining 110 seats, and hence a two-thirds majority.

Even though Chacón's figures show that the electorate is split down the middle -- 53 percent in favor of Chávez versus 47 percent for the opposition -- changes in the electoral law mean even a wafer-thin lead for the government in the popular vote translates into a substantial parliamentary majority.

Asked if attempts to impose a socialist regime against the will of half the electorate might not lead to a political crisis, Chacón said if the government won at least 53 percent of the vote, ``there would be no problem at all.''

The key factor in the government's favor is that it is strong in poor, rural states that are heavily over-represented under the current electoral law.

The opposition, however, is hoping that -- as happened in 2007, when Chávez lost a referendum on constitutional reform -- millions of disgruntled government supporters will simply stay home on polling day.

Chacón is convinced that is an illusion, saying the political climate today is totally different than three years ago.

``What happened in 2007 is not going to happen this time,'' he said.

Miguel Acosta, in Hoyo de las Delicias, is less certain.

``There's no work,'' he said. ``The only job you can get around here is street-sweeping.''

Then he paused.

``I don't like to make predictions,'' he said. ``But the reckoning is coming.''

Coming Monday: The opposition faces a substantial disadvantage in Sunday's elections.