As far as I'm concerned, at this point in time, with the facts we have, and the logical interpretation of those facts by some of the members of this board, this will happen. Since the situation is basically being shaped by 2 or 3 countries, instead of 2 or 3 local companies, this is somewhat riskier than if we were looking at a N. American state or provincial permit only - but also potentially more lucrative for that exacct reason.
If at this point in time, after so many years of holding on to this stock, cursing one's luck, one can't simply wait for the final play, then it's better to sell up and get out. At this point in time, negative scenarios serve no purpose whatsoever, and are simply background noise.
If someone sees negative FACTS, either at the local, LC level, or at an international level, then by all means, post them. Otherwise, go outside and enjoy the fall weather.
The fellow chose a date, for pete's sake, sugesting it was a fortune cookie. Get a grip, Cividale.