In his 10/10 Alo Presidente 365, Hugo appears to favor the Chinese. Then he goes on his world tour, including Russia, and follows it up by with a summarizing speech on 10/19 in which he appears to favor Russia.

IMO he is in a quandry because he doesn't know how to award Las Cristinas without pissing off one of his major sugar daddies.

The game apparently is intimidation and who is better at it. Maybe he who intimidates last, intimidates best.

If I am right, our chances are 50/50 or a flip of a coin.