Speculation....

I really can't predict what Hugo will do, but it does depend entirely on him. I don't think he plans at all; he just reacts with off the cuff statements and then leaves underlings to try to interpret and perform. Most of them have been placed in their positions by virtue of their political performance, not ability to do the job, so in reality little is ever achieved and the lower level officers are agreeable, but powerless except to ask for the odd handout to feed their children and keep their personal need met. For most government employees doing nothing except a few speeches and fine promises is what they have been reduced to.

I expect LC and LB to be combined as a single mine at some time and operated by one organisation. There is no way that the CVG or any other Venezuelan entity could build and run it. They can't even run mines or businesses that were going concerns before they stole them!

In the GRZ case, I suspect that as soon as a possible operator for LB or LC is being considered, the Ven lawyers will make a low ball settlement bid in exchange for the GRZ data. I expect it will be far too low initially and that GRZ will reject it.

If Hugo can find someone who trusts him sufficiently (or can pressure him into abiding by his word) who is serious in mining LC & LB then a more realistic offer will be made to GRZ for settlement. If KRY is in Arbitration at the time they may get an offer as well.

If the GRZ offer is at or near $1 billion I expect GRZ would take it if made early enough. If it is not made well before the case is due to be ruled on and it's going well they may hold out for more or wait for the ruling. It's always a trade off as to accepting a lesser amount quickly or risk waiting for the chance of a better result from the arbitrators.

KRY will have to go to arbitration, but that means keeping the bond holders happy and financing their overheads and legal costs in the interim. I really can't see a white knight coming up with a lot of cash for arbitration without a significant share of the final settlement.

Just look at the Vanessa case. It has languished because of a shakey legal base and limited funding... They will be lucky to break even on the deal even if the arbitration goes their way.