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Message: Nuances

I think we all have a tendency, myself included, to look for the nuances of life. Now we find ourselves looking for the nuances behind the recent cancellation of the MOA. What does it all mean? Why was it cancelled. What is Venezuela's ulterior motive?

IMHO I think we are wasting our time looking for nuances in Venezuela.

I write this because I have some experience leading a very large and expensive negotiation with a corrupt government that spent 3 years talking and talking...... saying yes, yes, you'll get what you want. But, because no bribes were ever paid, we didn't get what we wanted. We lost the battle and, by losing the battle, I mean dear friends were murdered by that corrupt government. Three years of talking ending in death.

Actions speak louder than words especially in corrupt countries. And certainly Venezuela is a corrupt country through and through.

KRY management told me several times Chavez only talks an erratic tough anti business, anti yankee game. I brought up to them that not only had Chavez never ever said one kind word about KRY, for all that we did in Bolivar, but on several occasions he publicly denounced the evil transnationals, KRY included. KRY's reply: We're not worried by what Chavez says, it's his actions that count.

Well now he has acted. Twice.

Once with the denial of the permit and now with the cancellation of the MOA.

There were some who believed the denial of the permit was a negotiation ploy by Venezuela to get a bigger piece of the pie. But, if KRY is to be believed, following the denial Venezuela never asked for any changes in the MOA and never told KRY what steps were needed to get the permit granted.

Granted, I was not part of the conversations in Venezuela, but the outcome tells me their denial of the permit was just that. A denial. No nuance, just: You don't get the permit and we're not listening to any talk of an appeal.

Now some on this board are hoping this cancellation is a ploy to renegotiate the MOA. Based on the history of Las Cristinas nightmare I don't see it that way.

I see the cancellation of the MOA as just another, albeit strongest yet, action where Venezuela is telling KRY you're not getting squat and we don't care if you have the ghost of Simon Bolivar as your CEO.

KRY has built the roads, clinics, water treatment plants, housing etc that Venezuela demanded. That's done. There now seems to be little more that Venezuela wants from KRY so therefore, I believe, there is no longer a need to have KRY in Venezuela. Chavez wants us out so that he can tell the poor: I've saved our gold from those filthy gringos who will not get a single ounce. KRY may get some small settlement years down the road, if KRY can survive that long, but the poor in Venezuela will never hear about that and they'll also never get the jobs that they were promised.

Sadly, I'm told by KRY, we are continuing to honor the cancelled contract to stay in compliance.

Why we are burning more cash down there is beyond me but, then again, I'm just a millionaire. Fung is a billionaire so I guess he knows more than I do. At least I hope he does.

As always I hope I'm wrong about all this but I doubt it.

Just my thoughts

Cividale

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Feb 09, 2011 09:25PM
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Feb 10, 2011 01:17AM
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Feb 10, 2011 06:54AM
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