Poking another toe out of the Henhouse. Last time lost one when going for the rimm.

Might be a little early on this call. At least in the USA.

Although the Market has been showing, for quite some time, topping technically (not a recent phenom), there are several other things going on fundamentally...

Jobs - the jobs picture is getting better. At least it seems to be. The numbers appear to be getting better - but are people really getting good paying jobs, or just giving up. The numbers might be stacked. This number is a survey. Underemployment is much higher than what the survey says. Income is stagnant or falling. Much of the time, in recent times, the jobs that folks are getting are not the type that allows them to afford the American Dream - a home.

Homes - Sales still going down, as well as average prices, after all of the influx of Gov't Lucky Bucks. Perusing the ads shows, what appears to be, a small number of foreclosures on the Market. The reality is that there is an absolute huge number of homes in distress for every one on the Market. A once-in-a-lifetime buying environment of "creative financing" and liar loans was created during the bubble, and now the foreclosures and notices of default are kept in the shadows (or at least there is an attempt). There is a very big basket of Alt-A and Option ARM's just now hitting their time to be called in. May be a couple of more years, at least, for all of this part to shake out. But, the Banks are very good at playing this, so who knows.

Consumer Spending - is up. However, much of it to cover transportation to get that job - in the form of gasoline. Large SUV's still dominate the roadways, and until that changes the thirst for gas will keep demand up. Also, people gotta be lookin' good, while on the road, so the high-dollar poser machines are out there in force. Vanity trumps reality. Is some of this consumer spending a carry over from the liar loans and re-fi HELOC crazyness? Could very well be, and it will eventually run out. It will also take a bit before those folks who have gotten a lower-paying job, and previously lived the high-life, to realize they have to cut back on a few things, such as cable, eating out, the gardener, maid, etc.

Two-Toed Chicken JC, From the Henhouse. Can't afford a bunker.