In the remaining weeks of this 2011 is expected a decision by the Court of International Arbitration of the Chamber of Commerce (ICC) with respect to arbitration brought by the U.S. oil company Exxon Mobil against Petroleos de Venezuela (PVDSA) is also pending demand for Conoco Phillips.

According to analysts both verdicts are expected to be unfavorable to the Venezuelan state, which would involve the payment of 5,000 million and 13,000 million dollars.

The president of PDVSA and Minister of Energy and Petroleum Rafael Ramirez has said the company has its estimates of what will pay. However, these are much lower than expected by analysts.

He noted that the amount that multinationals aim is well above expectations. In the case of losing both arbitrations, Ramirez believes the cost would be below the 2,500 million dollars, which considered "a success".

Meanwhile, oil analyst Alberto Quiros Corradi believes that the amount to be paid by PDVSA to lose both litigation could amount to 5,000 million dollars, although the proviso that it is very difficult to say how much the Venezuelan oil company should pay not to go favored.

"The plaintiffs always want more of what they aspire to. While the referees take into account many details when making their decisions," said the specialist by telephone. What it is virtually certain is that PDVSA Quirós Corradi lose both litigation.

It should be remembered that these suits brought against Venezuelan holding due to the nationalization of the assets of the applicants in the Orinoco Oil Belt in 2007.

The expert explained that during this process PDVSA breaching the original contract. The other element that runs counter to the Venezuelan oil is that so far there have been compensation for the confiscation of assets.

The Barclays Capital investment bank is more pessimistic with regard to the situation in Venezuela. According to expectations of the British firm PDVSA would pay 3,700 million dollars to Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips while around 9,700 million dollars to add more than 13,000 million dollars between the two arbitrations. Initially, the aspiration of both applicants was around 40,000 million dollars, but these were reduced last year.

FINANCIAL COST
Although it is unknown what the amount should not cancel out PDVSA favored in the above litigation, said Quirós Corradi as estimated it would affect the finances of the oil. "The bad state it is the PDVSA's cash flow will be affected," said the specialist.

It also stated that the state does not have an adequate reserve to deal with such circumstances. "They will have to be aided by the government or the Central Bank of Venezuela and have been doing the past few years," said Quiros Corradi.

However, PDVSA's financial statements at the end of last year indicated that he believes that losses recognized over the estimated will "generate significant amounts for PDVSA's financial situation or results of operations."