http://en.whatsnextvenezuela.com/news/chavez-circling-the-wagons/

R. Cárdenas served in several foreign policy positions during the George W. Bush administration (2004-2009), including on the National Security Council staff. He is a consultant with Vision Americas in Washington, DC.

Hugo Chávez appears to be a man in a hurry these days. Although we continue to have no independent confirmation on the extent of his illness, the recent, rapid succession of announcements from Caracas certainly makes it appear as if he’s someone who believes his days are numbered.

First, there was last month’s announcement that he was transferring $6 billion in cash reserves held in U.S. and European financial institutions to Russian and Chinese banks. In addition, Caracas announced that it was repatriating some 200 tons of gold – valued at $11 billion – held abroad to Venezuela’s Central Bank. Most analysts said there was no economic reason for such a risky move, meaning that its only justification was political, that Chávez likely intends to shield Venezuelan assets from future international sanctions or claims by jilted foreign creditors.

Then, The Wall Street Journal reported that Chávez was planning to make good on his promise to withdraw Venezuela from the World Bank’s International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). The Center is the preeminent global forum where investors can hold governments accountable for breaches of contracts and other malfeasances. There, Chávez is facing more than $40 billion in claims by 20 foreign companies whose assets he has expropriated. Under ICSID regulations, Venezuela is still liable for those claims, although Chávez has never played by anyone’s rules but his own.

Finally, Chávez announced that he is moving up the 2012 presidential elections two months from December to October 7th, 2012, shortening the campaign season and placing less physical demands on his uncertain health.

Again, these decisions by Chávez hardly suggest someone who is steadily convalescing from a bout with cancer, but someone who is trying to get something done in a hurry. In this case, it could arguably be walling off Venezuela from retribution by the “imperial” powers as he rushes to put the final touches on his Bolivarian utopia.

Disengaging Venezuela from the U.S. and European-dominated international financial system — the “tyranny” of the U.S. dollar — has been Chávez’s dream since he first rose to power 12 years ago. He has railed about the inherent “unfairness” of it all in countless speeches and has busied himself creating alternatives to “imperialist”-dominated international institutions. The effort appears to be entering hyper-drive.

Moving the election up, even by two months, increases the odds he will be healthy enough to keep to an arduous cross-country campaign schedule. If he falters physically, or is unexpectedly defeated at the polls, there is every chance he or his movement will upend the table and continue in power. The democratic world be damned. There will always be buyers of Venezuelan oil, and their cash reserves will likely be beyond the reach of international sanction. Make no mistake about it: over the next 12 months, every effort on Chávez and his acolytes’ part will be dedicated to the continuation of Chavismo, with or without Hugo, and with or without international approbation.