IMHO
If Chavez dies there will be a great Vennie wave of: Oh how wonderful he was. How can we live without his guiding light?
If Chaves loses the election there will be a quiet awareness that the nationalization policies and his bombastic rhetoric have crippled the country and need to be quietly reversed.
Either way this will be good for KRY. But I don't think his absense will help our ISCID case because Ven can't afford to pay off all of the full awards currently being demanded. Without or with Chavez, Ven's lawyers will dig their heals in a deep as possible because Ven just doesn't have the money to pay for all of their crimes.
But with Chavez and hopefully Castro gone I think there is a greater chance some kind of settlement can be reached before the next batch of debt is due in five years. That's assuming KRY can raise the 120 million they hope to raise.
If Chavez dies I think we might see doubling of our current share price but not much higher.
I think a greater boost would be if we saw reasonable settlements to GRZ and others like Mobil Exxon.
Cividale