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Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America

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Message: Advice for the day

Ok, ASSUMING that the deal gets done, and the numbers circulating around here are correct............I figured I would do some per share math.

Caluculation Assumptions:

- award/settlement 3 years out,

- Interest at $24 million a year (20% on 120 million), not sure if its compunded or not, don't know those details. Add $10-15 million over three years if you want. But i'll keep it simple at $72 million for three years.

- no taxes on the first $600 million (because I figure we have never made any money and have accumulated enough losses in the last 10-15 years to offset any gain on this level of settlement)

- new investors get 49% of arb proceeds after costs of the arbitration, interest (i'm not sure about this, but i assume they don't get to double dip), and taxes (if any).

- Cost of arbitration $40 million ($20 million the last 2 years (includes interest on current debt), and another $20 million for the next three years).

- New investors get their $120 million in principle back after three years.

- 400 million shares outstanding.

So,

$300 million award/ settlement.

New Investors: $284 million

Current Shareholders: $16 million or $0.04 cents a share

$500 million award / settlement.

New Investors: $382 million

Current Shareholders: $118 million or $0.30 cents a share

$600 million award / settlement

New Investors: $431 million

Current Shareholders: $160 million or $0.425 cents a share

For numbers above $600 million (which I feel is the minimum we should get based on what we spent, plus interest and financing costs, plus a required rate of return over the last 10 years for opportunity cost), basically add about 7-12 cents for every $100 million based on tax assumptions etc. The higher the number, the more leverage to the shareholders.

For example, a $1 billion award at 34% tax rate after the first $600 million tax free gives us.

New Investors: ((1000-72-40) - (400X.34)) X .49 + (120 + 72) = $560 million

(the award %) (P +I)

Current Shareholders: $440 million or $1.10 / share.

If we had 1.4 billion shares outstanding instead (we did an equity financing at 0.12 cents right now).

a $600 million settlement would give us $0.43 cents a share

a $1 billion settlement gives us $0.62 cents a share

As you can see, the deal as suggested hurts us with a smaller settlement, but benefits us with a large settlement. managment must be betting on a larger settlement, otherwise, why do the deal?

Of course, these are just some rough calculations to give a sense of what us shareholders can get. There are numerous details I don't know, not to mention if things in Vennie change and we get the property back in some type of JV and cash for recourse.

Cheers,

FK

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