Some quick arb math for those who want more detail...........
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 08, 2011 11:18AM
Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America
Ok, ASSUMING that the deal gets done, and the numbers circulating around here are correct............I figured I would do some per share math.
Caluculation Assumptions:
- award/settlement 3 years out,
- Interest at $24 million a year (20% on 120 million), not sure if its compunded or not, don't know those details. Add $10-15 million over three years if you want. But i'll keep it simple at $72 million for three years.
- no taxes on the first $600 million (because I figure we have never made any money and have accumulated enough losses in the last 10-15 years to offset any gain on this level of settlement)
- new investors get 49% of arb proceeds after costs of the arbitration, interest (i'm not sure about this, but i assume they don't get to double dip), and taxes (if any).
- Cost of arbitration $40 million ($20 million the last 2 years (includes interest on current debt), and another $20 million for the next three years).
- New investors get their $120 million in principle back after three years.
- 400 million shares outstanding.
So,
$300 million award/ settlement.
New Investors: $284 million
Current Shareholders: $16 million or $0.04 cents a share
$500 million award / settlement.
New Investors: $382 million
Current Shareholders: $118 million or $0.30 cents a share
$600 million award / settlement
New Investors: $431 million
Current Shareholders: $160 million or $0.425 cents a share
For numbers above $600 million (which I feel is the minimum we should get based on what we spent, plus interest and financing costs, plus a required rate of return over the last 10 years for opportunity cost), basically add about 7-12 cents for every $100 million based on tax assumptions etc. The higher the number, the more leverage to the shareholders.
For example, a $1 billion award at 34% tax rate after the first $600 million tax free gives us.
New Investors: ((1000-72-40) - (400X.34)) X .49 + (120 + 72) = $560 million
(the award %) (P +I)
Current Shareholders: $440 million or $1.10 / share.
If we had 1.4 billion shares outstanding instead (we did an equity financing at 0.12 cents right now).
a $600 million settlement would give us $0.43 cents a share
a $1 billion settlement gives us $0.62 cents a share
As you can see, the deal as suggested hurts us with a smaller settlement, but benefits us with a large settlement. managment must be betting on a larger settlement, otherwise, why do the deal?
Of course, these are just some rough calculations to give a sense of what us shareholders can get. There are numerous details I don't know, not to mention if things in Vennie change and we get the property back in some type of JV and cash for recourse.
Cheers,
FK