The next few months
posted on
Aug 09, 2012 12:20AM
I have been a very recent follower of crystallex and this board and thought I may add a little to the mix. Very little.
Recent polls show Capriles is even with Chavez and trend is in his favor. If he can survive the election and transition he should be more open to settle. I put nothing past HCF in order to win.
Recent medical opinions are leaning towards chavez surviving the moved up election date and expiring early next near. The view is he may be replaced on the ballot at the last min with his chosen puppet to avoid another mandatory election after 30 days, if he dies in office. I think his ego will never let him step down. Regardless, when he dies Capriles will be the next president if another election is held per existing rules. If.
The GRZ decision. This is huge and is due out at anytime but most likely towards year end. It looks like there is a decent chance for lost profits based on latest rumors surrounding ICSID requests. Maybe this is the heads up for parties to settle but dealing with VZ is impossible to predict outcome so I will just wait on decision.
The noteholders. I am stunned by the stupid. Im not sure I buy it and tend to lean toward JC thinking something is up. That is not necessarily bad and maybe its actually good resulting in them allowing Cry to emerge CCCA on reasonable terms with a few shares and a little higher interest. Wild Card.
In the meantime management burns through money like they have it. If they do not stop the bleeding another dilution will be at hand as we are already approaching our 3rd tranche and 2 million remaining in equipment. Maybe we get back a few bucks after noteholders lose appeal in next 6 weeks but I see maybe $20 million remaining come sept.