Wasn’t it the case that the compensation Venezuela was ordered to pay Exxon by a World Bank arbitration tribunal was a “favourable end” to a longstanding legal battle because it was considerably lower than the figure the company had sought?

It seems not, even if those were the words Venezuela’s foreign minister, Rafael Ramírez, penned in a statement this month. Fast forward two weeks and the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, or ICSID, said it had received a request from the Venezuelan government for a revision of the award.

In early October the ICSID tribunal awarded Exxon $1.6bn plus interest for the takeover of the Cerro Negro project and the smaller La Ceiba project in the heavy crude Orinoco Belt by the government of the late Hugo Chávez in 2007. But ICSID said in a statement dated Friday:

The Secretary-General registers an application for revision of the award filed by the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, and notifies the parties of the provisional stay of enforcement of the award.

The company had originally sought about $10bn, according to Reuters. So the lower amount (after deducting a previous compensation payment, the payment is expected to be around $1bn) was hailed as a victory by the former energy czar, who said:

The ICSID arbitral tribunal has just issued its final award in the case, putting an end to the groundless speculation that has been circulating for several years that the Republic [Venezuela] would have to pay billions of dollars in compensation to ExxonMobil . . .

The revision of the award may not look good to some. There are fears about Venezuela’s stance due to increasing doubts over the country’s financial stability as oil prices drop. The World Bank estimates Venezuela’s economy will contract by 2.9 per cent this year.

Some analysts doubt Venezuela will default on its foreign debt. However, aside from some hefty bond payments due this year, the nation still faces some two dozen cases at the World Bank tribunal. Those include a claim that ConocoPhilips has against Venezuela – according to a report by Barclays from early October, the company is seeking $20bn in compensation.

The final outcome of the Exxon case could also have other implications for the country with the world’s largest oil reserves. Energy experts agree Venezuela needs serious money to ramp up production for developing its massive deposits of heavy crude in the Orinoco Belt.

According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, Venezuelan output fell to some 2.5m barrels a day last year, from roughly 2.8m b/d a decade ago. So it may be beneficial for the government to make do and settle with Exxon if the Caribbean nation wants to attract more investment.

Notwithstanding, Eurasia, the risk consultancy, warned in a note on Monday:

The government had treated the Exxon ruling as a victory and even hinted that they would compensate Exxon as recently as this weekend. However, the government will likely look to annul ICSID rulings as a delay tactic given its severe liquidity constraints. Annulment proceedings could take as long as two to three years . . .