On December 2nd, Venezuelans voted against an anti-democratic alternative (Photo: Paulo Pérez Zambrano)

ROBERTO GIUSTI
EL UNIVERSAL

Late last year, the forces opposed to Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez were in their best political time since 2003 and the results of a constitutional referendum held on December 2nd mirrored such a trend. So far, 2008 has been very promising ahead of the local elections on November 23rd.

Does it mean that local elections will result into a new government defeat that will bury once and for all the Chávez's project of total domination? Not necessarily. The polling is more than six months ahead. As in previous occasions, Chávez could use all the springs of power he has in his hands and turn the omelet over.

However, it seems that for the first time there are three concurrent factors: Chávez insists on repeating the wrong strategy of 2007: there is no rectification, but ratification; in spite of some worrisome symptoms, it seems that the opposition learned the lessons of previous erratic performance and the prospects of unity prevail; Chávez just suffered a defeat and the voters' intention measured in December, rather than changing in favor of the almighty, tends to remain unchanged.

In spite of the complex, multiple nature of the state and municipal elections, Chávez's individualistic character, who is present even in the packaging of pre-cooked corn flour, is the center of a contest where the citizens' most immediate needs should be met.

The difference now is that this person, rather that levering up downcast leaders, buries them. The aircraft carrier has turned into a destroyer that sinks its own fleet in a contradictory army.

In other words, the key of victory is the cause of the defeat. In turn, such defeat is the result of past elections, the effects of which are taking root and extending to the next vote.

Last December 2nd, people vote against anti-democracy, not only as a matter of principle, but also because such anti-democracy proved to be inefficient and unable to tackle ordinary issues, namely: insecurity, inequality, unemployment, hunger, misery, waste collection and inflation.

After ten years, more and more increasingly frustrated and disappointed people have realized that the patronage system has short wings and devours prodigious amounts of dollars to remedy temporarily the big social evils.

It seems that Chávez understood partially the source of the problem and vowed primary elections of pro-government candidates running for governors and mayors. In this way, he intends to minimize the impression that he purports to be the only and final decision maker.

The point at issue is that democratic simulation creates real expectations. The members of pro-government United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) may find that they were cheated. If their candidate fails to get 50 percent of the vote, Chávez's dumb will eventually choose. Sure enough, they will not submissively abide by their chief's decision as it happened in the past. Further, should Chávez appoint anybody in his interest, but unable to move the crowds, there could be dispersion and subsequent defeat.

Now, therefore, if any pre-candidate gets 50 percent, then there is the possibility of winning. With this certificate of popularity, such candidate could tell Chávez: "I owe you nothing, I pay you nothing," or better still, "Do not help me, compadre."

Chávezism weaknesses are favorable to the opposition. Opponents did not attain such position out of a passive stance. On the contrary, they set an all-inclusive strategy, in addition to new, reinforcing characters -students, pro-government Podemos party and ex Defense Minister Raúl Isaías Baduel. Such a strategy overcame polarization and attracted also the votes of reluctant government followers.

This time, the best in 10 years, the scene looks more complicated. The alternative of Yes or No unveils more interests and ambitions. Therefore, the ghost of dispersion may show up.

Nevertheless, while the government ineffectiveness and criminal slothfulness are responsible for spooky numbers such as more than 13,000 killings a year, a disgruntled society that has apparently recovered the faith in vote may bury opposition leaders if they try to be funny and play the game of division.
rgiusti@eluniversal.com

Translated by Conchita Delgado