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Message: of qoutes and theories..

of qoutes and theories..

posted on Aug 23, 2008 05:34AM

i was kinda shocked when many folks started using the qoute "buy on rumor, sell on news" to explain why kry did'nt expand gains friday....it seems this term has really lost it's meaning (if it ever had any, it's pretty interpretive)...but many new traders (you really see this on the yahoo board) seem to take this term as a "wall street law"....

i think cramer and "the like" are responsible for this type of mindset....it's the weekend so i'm going to hold "trading for dummies" (on yahoo board, most of the guys here either know more than i do or are completely unteachable anyway..j/k momg)

"buy on rumor, sell on news" as it applies to kry....

2 ways to look at it:

1. "theres now a rumor that kry will get it's permit..so buy" maybe this would make some sense..

2. "theres news that kry is back in the game in venezuela..so sell" this makes no sense to me...at all

the one thing i take from all wall street qoutes is that they are all right/wrong at times...except for bruce lee..his qoute is pretty steadfast...

here's some more:

A word of caution: Some of the references below relate to short term trading strategies, some to intermediate term speculation and some to long term investing. All are worth considering.

On Waiting.....

Wait for the fat pitch. - Warren Buffett: comparing investing to a baseball game where you can wait endlessly for the perfect pitch before you swing.

I only go to work on the days that make sense to go to work...And I really do something on that day. But you go to work and you do something every day and you don't realize when it's a special day. - George Soros talking to Byron Wien

His first conclusion was that he won when all the factors were in his favor, when he was patient and waited for all the ducks to line up in a row. - from Jesse Livermore, Worlds Greatest Stock Trader

Profits can be made safely only when the opportunity is available and not just because they happen to be desired or needed. ...Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival.- Gerald Loeb

You make money on wall street by being very selective and being patient, waiting for those opportunities that are irresistible, where the percentages are very heavily in your favor.- Seth Glickenhaus

Unless, however, we see a very high probability of at least 10 percent pretax returns (which translate to 6 percent to 7 percent after corporate tax), we will sit on the sidelines. With short-term money returning less than 1 percent after-tax, sitting it out is no fun. But occasionally successful investing requires inactivity.- Warren Buffett

Many equity investors feel compelled to remain 100% invested in equities at all times. Bond investors are often similarly constrained. We strongly believe that this mentality leads to pursuit of relative rather than absolute investment returns, a direction we certainly want to avoid...A smaller pool of funds seeking to avoid meaningful declines in market value at every point in time and seeking more aggressive return objectives cannot afford to be fully invested in the absence of attractive opportunities. – Seth Klarman

On Mistakes....

...if anything, I make as many mistakes as the next guy. But where I do think that I excel is in recognizing my mistakes, you see. And that is the secret to my success. The key insight that I have reached is recognition of the inherent fallibility of human thought. - George Soros

The only way you get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes! - Jesse Livermore

On Psychology...

The most important single factor in shaping security markets is public psychology. - Gerald Loeb

Wall Street never changes. The pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes because human nature never changes. - Jesse Livermore

There is nothing more important than your emotional balance. - Jesse Livermore

There are styles in securities as there are in clothes. A security may be undervalued, but if it is also out of style it is of little interest to the speculator. He is, therefore, compelled to study the psychology of the stock market as well as the elements of real value. - Phil Carret

When events have thinking participants, the subject matter is no longer confined to facts but also includes the participants’ perceptions. The chain of causation does not lead directly from fact to fact but from fact to perception and from perception to fact. - George Soros

On the Importance of History/ Reversion to the Mean/ Being Contrarian

I got wiped out personally in 1968, which was the last really crazy, silly stock market before the Internet era….After 1968, I became a great reader of history books. I was shocked and horrified to discover that I had just learned a lesson that was freely available all the way back to the South Sea Bubble.- Jeremy Grantham

As investors, we are only the limited product of our own experiences and therefore vulnerable unless we read and assimilate the accumulated wisdom of the great ones. And Financial history definitely tends to repeat itself.- Barton Biggs

Indeed, the evidence is compelling that when decade-long real stock returns are inordinately high by historical standards, returns in subsequent decades are likely to tumble; when past returns are exceptionally low, future returns are apt to rise. What it's all about, it seems, is reversion to the mean. – John Bogle

The boom and the bust were normal—just two more swings in stock returns over the past century. Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of the financial markets. – John Bogle

Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others. It's cheaper! - John Bogle

People tell me this is a golden era –low inflation, low interest rates, slow growth-and therefore, we should all own common stocks. I remind those people that the best time I’ve ever know to invest in common stocks was, in fact, when we were not in a golden era. When we were in a very depressed period…the mid seventies....But it was precisely that gloom that created tremendous values in stocks. – Joe Rosenberg

You make money buying stocks on weakness and stocks in distress. You don’t make money buying stocks when they are in high demand. – Seth Glickenhaus

A period of prosperity contains the seed of its own destruction. - Phil Carret

On Portfolio Management/ Diversification/ Risk

Some investors, and I'm one of them, believe that the secret of investing is "risk management." That means never taking the BIG HIT, and always knowing what your potential loss is in every move you make. The real disasters in this business come from taking huge risks -- and losing.- Richard Russell

It is not whether you are right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.- Stanley Druckenmiller

Like other legendary investors, he has made much of his fortune on a few big hits. –Byron Wien referring to Roy Neuberger

It is not how likely an event is to happen that matters, it is how much is made when it happens that should be the consideration. How frequent the profit is irrelevant; it is the magnitude of the outcome that counts...very few people take home a check linked to how often they are right or wrong. What they get is a profit or loss. - Nassim Taleb

Some of the greatest tragedies of the panic (1929) were the losses sustained by high corporation officials who were carrying large blocks of their own stocks on borrowed money. In many instances the accumulations of a lifetime were wiped out. - Phil Carret

Extreme dislocations in markets inevitably occur - Gary Brinson

When allocating capital, portfolio managers need to consider that unexpected events do occur - Michael Mauboussin

Investors refuse to believe that shock lies in wait...Investors do better where risk management is a conscious part of the process...survival is the only road to riches. Let me say that again: survival is the only road to riches. You should try to maximize return only if losses would not threaten your survival...You don't want to blow it, because you don't get a second chance. When you invest, it's not your wealth today, but it's your future that you're really managing. - Peter Bernstein

Surprise and shock are endemic to the system, and people should always arrange their affairs so that they will survive such events. They will end up richer that way than focusing all the time on getting rich- Peter Bernstein

On Flexibility

#1 Rule of Investing: Be Flexible - Roy Nueberger

Never adopt permanently any type of asset or any selection method. Try to stay flexible, open-minded, and skeptical. - John Templeton

Pliability: Consider and reconsider the facts, and your opinions. Stubbornness as to opinions-"cockiness"-must be entirely eliminated. - Bernard Baruch

Ignore mechanical formulas - Phil Carret

If there is anything I detest, it's a mechanistic formula for anything. People should use their heads and go by logic and reason, not by hard and fast rules. - Gerald Loeb

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless--like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, You put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, You put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash! Be water my friend. - Bruce Lee. Ok, this quote comes from the world of martial arts, but the lesson transcends mere combat.



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