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Message: Where are the gold bulls now?
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Led by Barrick, listed gold stocks are taking a trashing, amid a commodities carnage dominated by a rising dollar and slowing global economic growth.
Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Wednesday , 03 Sep 2008
JOHANNESBURG -
Where are the gold bulls now? The average listed gold stock has now lost half its value; Barrick, the biggest name in the business, has shed 40% of its value since trading at record levels, like most gold names, during the early parts of this year.
The majority of global Tier I gold diggers are now trading close to, or at, 12-month lows: Barrick, Polyus, Lihir, AngloGold Ashanti, Zijin, Newcrest, Gold Fields and Newmont. Given that the Tier I grouping has offered the greatest resistance to waves of investor selling, lesser gold names have experienced price contractions in greater degrees. A sample of 112 developer, or junior, gold names, shows up an average weighted stock price loss of nearly 60%.
Gold stocks have been sold off on the latest downward spiral in the dollar gold price, which set in on 15 July 2008. The metal price then traded at nearly USD 1,000 an ounce, close to the record levels seen in March this year. The bigger picture shows that the dollar index - which measures the traded weighted value of the greenback - entered into rally period on 15 July this year.
The recent appreciation has been sharp; the dollar index made a 12-month high on Tuesday, and another on Wednesday, triggering another broad based sell off in dollar commodity prices of virtually every kind. Gold bullion traded as low as USD 790 an ounce. The dollar entered into a protracted bear market early in 2002.
Investors who now take bets that the recent rally will extend will be making one of the biggest calls in global investment markets. Over the past few months, by far the majority of various experts have predicted that dollar gold bullion prices will again make USD 1,000 in the foreseeable future. The carnage in the pricing of listed gold stocks suggests, however, that the majority of investors anticipate continued falls, or at best consolidation, in dollar gold prices.
The correction in precious metals prices has been decisive, ranging from more than 20% for gold bullion to 51% for palladium, and slightly more than that for rhodium.
|
PRECIOUS METALS |
USD/oz |
From high* |
From low* |
|
Gold |
791.80 |
-23.3% |
17.9% |
|
Platinum |
1397.25 |
-39.3% |
10.3% |
|
Palladium |
290.50 |
-51.2% |
7.9% |
|
Silver |
12.64 |
-40.8% |
5.2% |
|
* 12-month |
|
|
|
In terms of relative stock price performance, the extent of corrections in the pricing of listed gold stocks ranks down there in the pits with the likes of miners of uranium, nickel, diamonds, molybdenum, silver, copper, and platinum.
The dollar's rally has been broadly underpinned by declining economic performance in an increasing number of countries across the globe, lagging the US, the leader of the economic down cycle. Along with falling commodity prices pushing inflationary fears off the boil, central bankers are increasingly under pressure to cut interest rates, putting a shine on the dollar. US interest rates can hardly be cut further, but policy interest rate cuts in most other countries remain distinctly possible
|
Global tier I gold stocks |
|
|
|
||
|
|
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
|
USD 31.39 |
-40.4% |
32.3% |
22.365 |
||
|
USD 31.00 |
-61.3% |
0.0% |
5.909 |
||
|
USD 7.98 |
-45.2% |
10.5% |
3.218 |
||
|
AUD 2.06 |
-53.7% |
0.0% |
3.726 |
||
|
USD 24.98 |
-49.1% |
0.9% |
8.758 |
||
|
CNY 4.63 |
-79.0% |
1.3% |
6.976 |
||
|
USD 32.91 |
-39.9% |
3.8% |
28.690 |
||
|
AUD 22.60 |
-44.2% |
2.0% |
8.468 |
||
|
USD 8.50 |
-56.6% |
1.2% |
5.553 |
||
|
USD 14.99 |
-45.3% |
22.5% |
9.221 |
||
|
USD 42.93 |
-25.4% |
5.3% |
18.856 |
||
|
USD 21.64 |
-49.5% |
15.4% |
5.949 |
||
|
USD 83.05 |
-34.7% |
20.4% |
31.888 |
||
|
USD 79.20 |
-21.1% |
18.9% |
16.830 |
||
|
Tier I averages/total |
|
-46.1% |
9.6% |
176.406 |
|
|
Weighted averages |
|
-44.3% |
11.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TIER II |
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
|
CNY 27.14 |
-83.0% |
0.6% |
1.395 |
||
|
USD 6.29 |
-39.7% |
21.9% |
1.859 |
||
|
ZAR 3.85 |
-41.2% |
16.7% |
0.521 |
||
|
USD 10.06 |
-49.5% |
8.6% |
7.029 |
||
|
CAD 0.64 |
-81.7% |
1.6% |
0.211 |
||
|
USD 7.83 |
-16.2% |
56.6% |
2.705 |
||
|
USD 52.87 |
-36.6% |
20.8% |
7.598 |
||
|
CAD 4.15 |
-74.2% |
13.7% |
0.963 |
||
|
USD 40.17 |
-28.6% |
64.8% |
3.068 |
||
|
CNY 31.20 |
-73.9% |
0.6% |
1.587 |
||
|
GBP 8.75 |
-48.1% |
5.2% |
1.257 |
||
|
USD 6.88 |
-47.6% |
5.8% |
0.878 |
||
|
CAD 1.48 |
-66.2% |
15.6% |
0.375 |
||
|
CAD 19.80 |
-20.7% |
45.3% |
2.131 |
||
|
GBP 3.97 |
-31.0% |
16.7% |
5.039 |
||
|
USD 6.10 |
-38.1% |
20.8% |
1.922 |
||
|
CAD 6.35 |
-31.4% |
21.6% |
1.284 |
||
|
CAD 5.30 |
-45.6% |
18.8% |
1.205 |
||
|
CAD 1.46 |
-58.2% |
0.0% |
0.400 |
||
|
Tier II averages/total |
|
-48.0% |
18.7% |
41.426 |
|
|
Weighted averages |
|
-48.2% |
20.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TIER III |
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
|
Western Goldfields |
CAD 1.53 |
-63.0% |
0.0% |
0.224 |
|
|
Great Basin |
CAD 2.41 |
-37.1% |
4.8% |
0.548 |
|
|
Sino Gold |
AUD 3.87 |
-56.4% |
5.2% |
0.933 |
|
|
Alamos |
CAD 5.56 |
-33.8% |
15.4% |
0.569 |
|
|
Highland |
GBP 1.07 |
-57.7% |
43.0% |
0.613 |
|
|
PanAust |
AUD 0.77 |
-38.8% |
27.5% |
0.909 |
|
|
Kingsgate |
AUD 4.55 |
-27.8% |
36.2% |
0.350 |
|
|
Int'l Mining |
CAD 4.55 |
-31.6% |
2.0% |
0.469 |
|
|
Allied Gold |
AUD 0.34 |
-67.5% |
34.0% |
0.114 |
|
|
First Uranium |
CAD 5.11 |
-57.4% |
27.8% |
0.719 |
|
|
Novagold |
CAD 6.53 |
-67.8% |
10.7% |
0.737 |
|
|
Pan African |
GBP 0.05 |
-54.9% |
27.6% |
0.090 |
|
|
Citigold |
AUD 0.17 |
-67.0% |
10.0% |
0.093 |
|
|
Jaguar |
CAD 6.80 |
-52.9% |
7.1% |
0.469 |
|
|
Pamodzi Gold |
ZAR 1.20 |
-93.5% |
0.0% |
0.014 |
|
|
Oceanagold |
AUD 0.61 |
-83.9% |
5.2% |
0.081 |
|
|
DRDGold |
ZAR 4.10 |
-60.0% |
7.6% |
0.197 |
|
|
Central African |
GBP 0.04 |
-91.0% |
3.3% |
0.011 |
|
|
Resolute |
AUD 1.45 |
-43.1% |
20.8% |
0.337 |
|
|
Integra Mining |
AUD 0.18 |
-75.4% |
0.0% |
0.056 |
|
|
Royal Gold |
USD 32.91 |
-15.4% |
24.0% |
1.117 |
|
|
Chenzhou |
CNY 8.15 |
-85.9% |
3.2% |
0.638 |
|
|
Aurizon |
CAD 2.85 |
-47.5% |
1.1% |
0.452 |
|
|
Kazakh Gold |
USD 14.95 |
-49.8% |
4.9% |
0.812 |
|
|
Gammon Gold |
CAD 9.65 |
-19.7% |
66.4% |
1.237 |
|
|
Crew Gold |
CAD 0.51 |
-74.5% |
2.0% |
0.282 |
|
|
Lingbao |
HKD 2.13 |
-75.5% |
12.1% |
0.081 |
|
|
Zhaojin |
HKD 4.74 |
-78.9% |
0.2% |
0.265 |
|
|
Rusoro Mining |
CAD 0.86 |
-68.4% |
32.3% |
0.365 |
|
|
Minefinders |
CAD 8.04 |
-42.8% |
1.5% |
0.430 |
|
|
Andina Minerals |
CAD 2.30 |
-58.2% |
19.2% |
0.196 |
|
|
Crystallex |
CAD 1.25 |
-62.9% |
123.2% |
0.395 |
|
|
Tier III averages/total |
|
-57.5% |
18.1% |
13.801 |
|
|
Weighted averages |
|
-57.6% |
18.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DEVELOPERS |
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
|
Anatolia |
CAD 2.38 |
-63.9% |
39.2% |
0.212 |
|
|
Andean |
CAD 1.29 |
-42.6% |
39.7% |
0.426 |
|
|
Norton Gold |
AUD 0.18 |
-74.1% |
16.7% |
0.050 |
|
|
European Gold |
CAD 3.70 |
-48.6% |
30.7% |
0.712 |
|
|
Banro |
CAD 3.43 |
-73.6% |
2.4% |
0.149 |
|
|
Greystar |
CAD 2.05 |
-75.7% |
7.3% |
0.101 |
|
|
Medusa |
AUD 1.00 |
-35.4% |
17.1% |
0.119 |
|
|
Osisko |
CAD 3.17 |
-56.2% |
6.7% |
0.551 |
|
|
Central Rand |
ZAR 9.10 |
-55.7% |
0.0% |
0.286 |
|
|
Tamaya |
AUD 0.03 |
-91.9% |
7.7% |
0.030 |
|
|
Gabriel |
CAD 2.20 |
-39.9% |
73.2% |
0.603 |
|
|
Mintails |
AUD 0.20 |
-73.2% |
25.0% |
0.115 |
|
|
Moto Goldmines |
CAD 2.35 |
-61.4% |
6.8% |
0.221 |
|
|
Detour Gold |
CAD 12.28 |
-51.7% |
111.7% |
0.591 |
|
|
Centamin Egypt |
CAD 0.96 |
-40.0% |
17.1% |
0.904 |
|
|
Seabridge |
CAD 14.65 |
-62.4% |
1.9% |
0.587 |
|
|
Gold Reserve |
CAD 1.80 |
-70.0% |
41.7% |
0.110 |
|
|
Aurelian |
CAD 5.45 |
-46.7% |
78.7% |
0.890 |
|
|
Avoca Resources |
AUD 1.71 |
-41.2% |
12.5% |
0.409 |
|
|
St Barbara |
AUD 0.22 |
-78.1% |
19.4% |
0.231 |
|
|
Jinshan |
CAD 1.22 |
-62.1% |
16.2% |
0.213 |
|
|
Metals Exploration |
GBP 0.16 |
-62.8% |
23.1% |
0.032 |
|
|
Mercator Gold |
GBP 0.14 |
-85.2% |
16.3% |
0.015 |
|
|
Archipelago |
GBP 0.26 |
-25.5% |
31.3% |
0.093 |
|
|
China Goldmines |
GBP 0.80 |
-52.5% |
1.3% |
0.068 |
|
|
Cluff Gold |
GBP 0.41 |
-64.0% |
2.5% |
0.060 |
|
|
Apex Minerals |
AUD 0.40 |
-71.9% |
12.7% |
0.129 |
|
|
Gold Eagle |
CAD 11.56 |
-8.3% |
108.3% |
1.323 |
|
|
B2GOLD |
CAD 0.65 |
-74.5% |
27.5% |
0.114 |
|
|
Beadell |
AUD 0.13 |
-74.0% |
83.1% |
0.010 |
|
|
Kimber |
CAD 1.24 |
-37.4% |
100.0% |
0.077 |
|
|
Aflease Gold |
ZAR 2.05 |
-44.9% |
19.2% |
0.137 |
|
|
Wits Gold |
ZAR 85.50 |
-52.5% |
7.0% |
0.304 |
|
|
Uruguay Minerals |
CAD 1.22 |
-67.0% |
16.2% |
0.064 |
|
|
Minera IRL |
GBP 0.63 |
-17.8% |
267.6% |
0.068 |
|
|
Mineral Deposits |
AUD 0.56 |
-63.6% |
19.1% |
0.224 |
|
|
Allied Nevada |
CAD 5.87 |
-33.3% |
42.8% |
0.361 |
|
|
Bralorne Gold |
CAD 0.88 |
-38.9% |
11.4% |
0.016 |
|
|
Buffalo Gold |
CAD 0.14 |
-88.1% |
0.0% |
0.016 |
|
|
Cassidy Gold |
CAD 0.18 |
-67.9% |
0.0% |
0.016 |
|
|
Colombia Goldfields |
CAD 0.37 |
-75.5% |
1.4% |
0.037 |
|
|
Coral Gold |
CAD 0.49 |
-67.1% |
8.9% |
0.013 |
|
|
Entrée Gold |
CAD 2.00 |
-40.3% |
50.4% |
0.202 |
|
|
Exeter Resources |
CAD 2.91 |
-50.8% |
11.1% |
0.156 |
|
|
Gitennes |
CAD 0.13 |
-72.9% |
23.8% |
0.007 |
|
|
Golden Goose |
CAD 0.32 |
-66.3% |
6.7% |
0.016 |
|
|
Grandview Gold |
CAD 0.16 |
-88.9% |
0.0% |
0.006 |
|
|
Kirkland Lake |
CAD 6.67 |
-54.4% |
8.5% |
0.399 |
|
|
MacMillan Gold |
CAD 0.45 |
-59.1% |
60.7% |
0.030 |
|
|
Molycor Gold |
CAD 0.11 |
-59.6% |
5.0% |
0.008 |
|
|
Moneta Porcupine |
CAD 0.12 |
-57.1% |
26.3% |
0.013 |
|
|
Nautilus Minerals |
CAD 1.50 |
-66.6% |
13.6% |
0.236 |
|
|
Navasota Resources |
CAD 0.79 |
-8.1% |
393.8% |
0.047 |
|
|
PC Gold |
CAD 0.67 |
-46.4% |
11.7% |
0.018 |
|
|
Queensland Minerals |
CAD 0.20 |
-69.2% |
5.3% |
0.009 |
|
|
Rainy River |
CAD 2.05 |
-65.5% |
13.9% |
0.127 |
|
|
Reunion Gold |
CAD 0.40 |
-75.0% |
42.9% |
0.021 |
|
|
Searchgold Resources |
CAD 0.06 |
-83.7% |
10.0% |
0.008 |
|
|
Skyline Gold |
CAD 0.11 |
-65.0% |
31.3% |
0.008 |
|
|
Staccato Gold |
CAD 0.12 |
-68.4% |
33.3% |
0.013 |
|
|
Sunridge Gold |
CAD 0.41 |
-80.9% |
24.2% |
0.027 |
|
|
UC Resources |
CAD 0.14 |
-82.0% |
12.5% |
0.015 |
|
|
Yukon-Nevada |
CAD 0.22 |
-88.1% |
91.3% |
0.044 |
|
|
Tanami Gold |
AUD 0.04 |
-76.7% |
12.9% |
0.034 |
|
|
Tasman Goldfields |
AUD 0.09 |
-67.9% |
36.4% |
0.005 |
|
|
Focus Minerals |
AUD 0.03 |
-78.6% |
29.2% |
0.032 |
|
|
Goldminex |
AUD 1.61 |
-10.6% |
114.7% |
0.089 |
|
|
Leyshon Resources |
AUD 0.35 |
-51.4% |
0.0% |
0.063 |
|
|
Regis Resources |
AUD 0.18 |
-83.6% |
63.6% |
0.036 |
|
|
Goldstar Resources |
AUD 0.11 |
-80.6% |
23.5% |
0.013 |
|
|
Gryphon Minerals |
AUD 0.17 |
-78.8% |
9.7% |
0.016 |
|
|
Barra Resources |
AUD 0.10 |
-79.8% |
11.1% |
0.018 |
|
|
Conquest Mining |
AUD 0.26 |
-69.4% |
4.0% |
0.058 |
|
|
Hill End Gold |
AUD 0.17 |
-68.3% |
22.2% |
0.038 |
|
|
Dioro Exploration |
AUD 0.41 |
-84.8% |
26.6% |
0.023 |
|
|
Shield Mining |
AUD 0.10 |
-75.6% |
25.0% |
0.004 |
|
|
Dragon Mining |
AUD 0.07 |
-55.3% |
11.7% |
0.041 |
|
|
Zedex Minerals |
AUD 0.10 |
-80.0% |
0.0% |
0.017 |
|
|
Red 5 |
AUD 0.05 |
-72.4% |
0.0% |
0.026 |
|
|
Adamus Resources |
AUD 0.30 |
-65.9% |
7.1% |
0.036 |
|
|
Medusa Mining |
AUD 1.00 |
-35.4% |
17.1% |
0.119 |
|
|
Hampton Hill |
AUD 0.30 |
-48.3% |
91.1% |
0.032 |
|
|
Navigator Resources |
AUD 0.22 |
-80.1% |
10.0% |
0.024 |
|
|
Keegan Resources |
CAD 2.35 |
-59.8% |
20.5% |
0.072 |
|
|
Oromin |
CAD 1.44 |
-65.3% |
0.0% |
0.101 |
|
|
Bear Creek Mining |
CAD 2.70 |
-71.2% |
10.2% |
0.161 |
|
|
Austral Gold |
AUD 0.17 |
-50.0% |
21.4% |
0.024 |
|
|
Atlantic Gold |
AUD 0.14 |
-42.6% |
28.6% |
0.023 |
|
|
Lake Shore Gold |
CAD 1.32 |
-41.6% |
23.4% |
0.248 |
|
|
Linear Gold |
CAD 1.43 |
-56.7% |
6.7% |
0.043 |
|
|
Metallic Venture |
CAD 0.83 |
-69.0% |
7.8% |
0.046 |
|
|
Mundoro |
CAD 0.38 |
-71.2% |
7.1% |
0.016 |
|
|
Stratagold |
CAD 0.07 |
-87.0% |
16.7% |
0.013 |
|
|
Tyhee |
CAD 0.35 |
-57.9% |
38.0% |
0.063 |
|
|
Queenstown |
CAD 2.08 |
-45.7% |
15.6% |
0.117 |
|
|
Miranda |
CAD 0.48 |
-66.0% |
20.0% |
0.023 |
|
|
Mariana |
GBP 0.05 |
-57.6% |
0.0% |
0.003 |
|
|
Tribune Resources |
AUD 1.30 |
-41.1% |
17.7% |
0.054 |
|
|
Atna Resources |
CAD 0.61 |
-68.6% |
31.2% |
0.055 |
|
|
Condor Resources |
CAD 0.50 |
-71.4% |
63.9% |
0.013 |
|
|
Australian Solomons |
CAD 0.30 |
-77.3% |
34.1% |
0.022 |
|
|
Brazauro |
CAD 0.42 |
-53.3% |
23.5% |
0.034 |
|
|
NWM Mining |
CAD 0.11 |
-57.7% |
22.2% |
0.011 |
|
|
Geoinformatics |
CAD 0.04 |
-91.6% |
16.7% |
0.005 |
|
|
Hawthorne Gold |
CAD 0.67 |
-72.2% |
4.7% |
0.021 |
|
|
Inter-Citic |
CAD 0.48 |
-66.0% |
-35.1% |
0.023 |
|
|
Int'l Tower Hill |
CAD 1.50 |
-44.2% |
26.1% |
0.064 |
|
|
Midway Gold |
CAD 1.41 |
-69.9% |
8.5% |
0.078 |
|
|
PMI Gold |
CAD 0.15 |
-56.1% |
3.6% |
0.012 |
|
|
Verena |
CAD 0.25 |
-51.9% |
78.6% |
0.026 |
|
|
Vior |
CAD 0.09 |
-66.0% |
13.3% |
0.007 |
|
|
Developer averages/total |
|
-61.1% |
29.4% |
14.197 |
|
|
Weighted averages |
|
-56.2% |
30.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall averages/total |
|
-57.1% |
24.2% |
228.999 |
|
|
Overall weighted averages |
-48.0% |
14.2% |
|
||
|
* 12-month |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: market data; tables compiled by Barry Sergeant |
|
|
|
||
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