Re: Thoughts on the Stock Market...
in response to
by
posted on
Jan 27, 2010 05:52PM
Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America
LMD,
My thoughts are that you have good reason for concern. Currently, the Market and Gold and Precious Metal stocks all seem to follow each other. The Market, both S&P500 and Dow, recently made lower-lows. As has gold and PM stocks. A lower-high in the up-cycle could indicate more Bearishness coming, at least technically speaking. Sure, sectors move up or down, but when the Market as a whole moves in lock-step time-after-time, it shows uncertainty. Not a good thing to an investor.
But Wait! There's More...
Housing, or the mess attributed to housing and the bizarro loans and packaging of those loans attached to housing, is still not done. That is what tanked the Market beginning in May 2008. Currently, and over the coming 18 months or so, there are Option-ARM and Alt-A loans recasting (making for a new and improved - and significantly higher payment) that may just take this whole house of cards down again. More housing (shadow) inventory coming unless the Banks can hold on to them indefinitely. Which might have been the case, and if so it was actually beginning to work. Except current Gov't proposals (one of the several reasons the Market recently tanked) is to not allow Banks to continue to be "too big to fail,"... or does that mean make Banks small enough to fail? Ouch!
So, when all of this housing inventory hits, who will be able to qualify to buy a house? Unemployment is high, and until the layoffs reverse (Ford is the only major Corp now hiring), then less and less folks will be able to buy a house. Prices will be pressured down, people will freak when they lose their equity and then walk away (actually currently happening now, called a "strategic default" - a term stolen from business). As it stands, with current unemployment there are more and more folks every day not able to make their payment, even if they do not have one of those Alt-A or Option-ARM loans.
The Fed said today that things are getting better. I do hope the Fed is right. Just seems to be too many indications that appear to point otherwise.
Stay diversified, with high-yielders. Do your DD on any of your stock choices. Be ready to bail if things go like what started in May 2008.