In the Caucasus, the West is about to establish a natural gas pipeline that runs from Central Asia through Georgia. This "Nabucco Project" pipeline would bypass Russia-and cut deeply into its natural gas business. Nabucco is expected to be operational by 2013, pumping gas along 1,800 miles, from Turkey's borders with Georgia or Iran to Austria., which would then distribute the gas across Europe.

This has the potential to single-handedly destroy Russia's financial future. Putin simply cannot allow this to happen. That's why last summer the Russian army occupied the Georgian towns that would control the Nabucco pipeline: "With Georgia no longer in full control of its territory and other countries in the region reassessing their relations with Russia, the chances that the Europeans would be able to use Georgia, or count on Azerbaijan for its gas, appear slim," writes the International Herald Tribune's Judy Dempsey. And regardless of what Putin tells the press, they aren't leaving anytime soon.

One Down, One to Go

In Eastern Europe, the Cold-War era pipeline carrying gas into Europe runs through Belarus and Ukraine. Since Ukraine's freedom-loving president Viktor Yushchenko is a friend of the West - even applying for NATO membership - that section of the pipeline has become Russia's Achilles heel. That's because Russia's main "peace-time" weapon to keep down uppity neighbors is natural gas. Consider this:

• Ukraine relies on Russia for 71% of its gas needs.
• Hungary obtains over 80% of its natural gas from Russia.
• The Baltic countries, Finland, and Slovakia are almost entirely dependent on Russian supplies.
• Even Turkey receives most of its gas from Russia.

Right now, the European Union has to import 57% of its natural gas. This will rise to 84% by 2030. Much will come from Russia. And most of this gas is still shipped through that Cold War-era pipeline that crosses Ukraine. The two countries have a history of pipeline-related hostilities!

Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom has choked off gas flows to Ukraine in the past: Russia doubled the gas price for Ukraine in 2006... raised it by 37% in 2007... and by 38% this year. When Ukraine couldn't pay, they simply cut off gas deliveries. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in June that his country may double the gas price again for 2009. In view of its budget situation and the continuing efforts to push through the Nabucco Project, Russia needs to strike again. The timing is crucial. It will have to happen when...

• Ukraine and Europe require gas most, in the dead of winter...
• The probability of U.S. interference is minimal, due to an inexperienced, "non-confrontational" new administration...
• The economic situation in Europe is critical thanks to the recent financial crisis!

Guaranteed Crisis

Our research indicates that Russia will make its move after Inauguration Day (Jan. 20). Most likely, it will happen during the week between Feb. 13 and Feb. 20. Here's how it will go down:

• Russia will double gas prices for Ukraine, quoting supply and demand. Ukraine will be unable to pay.
• Gazprom immediately will cut off natural gas deliveries.
• Ukraine's already damaged economy will grind to a standstill.
• Kiev will be forced to help itself to "transit gas" destined for Europe - and threaten to cut off the pipeline that connects Russia with the European Union.

The most powerful player in this brutal game of chess will be Gazprom. Gazprom is a company so powerful it's sometimes called a "state within the state". Its former Chairman of the Board, Alexander Medvedev, is now the Russian president. The company was even granted the right to form its own armed security force to safeguard its pipelines against "sabotage and terrorist acts" that could disrupt gas supplies to Europe. Gazprom's "kontraktniki" are an army of mercenaries, recruited from veteran Russian special forces. They have tanks. They have helicopters. And they're backed up by the conventional and nuclear firepower of the Russian military...

Who else to come out swinging from an armed confrontation? But there's a hidden agenda behind this whole scenario... Russia is making the ultra long-term play. A few million in stock valuation lost today could be worth trillions in the long run: Russia wants to re-nationalize Gazprom at the lowest possible cost to the Russian government... and at the expense of Western shareholders! When they sell in a panic, Russia will buy at fire-sale prices.

Ticking Time Bomb

If Ukraine moves to block the pipeline, Gazprom's shock troops will move to "protect" their business interests. Gas prices will go through the roof the moment the first Russian tank rumbles across the Ukrainian border. And Russian stocks will collapse as investors pull out in a panic. Just as they did in August, when Russia invaded Georgia. Just as they did last October.

When that happens, Gazprom share prices will get destroyed. Don't be surprised if their U.S.-traded ADRs will lose 20%... or even 50%... in a single trading day. That's exactly the moment the Russian government is waiting for: As private investors bail out, the Kremlin will step in... graciously buying up shares for kopeks on the ruble. Hedge funds, institutions and private investors will lose billions