Re: Loan Extension and Increased Credit
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 17, 2021 10:27AM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
Onlygame: Let's review how to do the PR on their most successful line of business: forklift. They issued an PR on April 3, 2017 and this was their first meaningful order. In the PR, they claimed the vendor has spent 5 months to beta-test the batteries. So the lead time is about half a year for forklist which is not that complicated IMO. Now, let's look at one of their most recent PR on e-bus. The PR was on March 17, 2021. It is significant for two reasons. First, the company released a PR on a new product which they feel that they have a fighting chance. In my view, they do expect some return (or sales). The lead time to sales should be much longer than the forklift case because of the complexity of the e-bus. Correct me if I am wrong, I would think e-bus module is much more complicated than the forklift. If the lead time was 5 months of testing in the case of forklift, then the lead time of testing the e-bus batteries will be substantial longer with safety comes to mind. Second, Raj is the COO now and I think it is a good sign. I think he plays a key role in the forklift and is also playing a much more important role in the e-bus now. So my bet is on the e-bus but it will take a much longer time to develop sales but with much higher revenue when it is off and running. I agree that the US infrastructure bill is part of the delay and the pending federal election in Canada also plays a role as well. Six months (end of the 2021) might just be right with US bill passed and Canadian federal election done. More importantly, testing on e-bus should be more or less complete at that time (end of the year is 8-9 months from the e-bus PR)
But when there is risk, there is opportunity. My own strategy on EFL is to hold a core holding (buy and hold with average around 20 cents) and to make swing trades (buy low on depressed news and sell high on good news). Right now, it is starting to look more and more in the buy low cycle. Hopefully, I am right again. Cheers!