Impressive FD&A Costs Highlight YE’09
Results
EVENT
1. CFPS Beats Expectation in Q4/09
EPS generated a FD CFPS of $0.03 in the quarter compared to
our expectation of nil. Production was relatively close to our
estimate at 953 boe/d. However, it was a cash cost structure that
was less than half our expectation that lead to the positive
variance.
2. 2P Reserves Up 39%
EPS announced that it increased its proved reserves by 90% to
16.1 mmboe and its 2P reserves rose 39% to 22.1 mmboe from
the previous year. This impressive growth was accomplished
despite the disposition of 10.2 mmboe of 2P reserves in the U.S.
and Yemen.
3. FD&A Costs Should Be Near Best in Peer Group
EPS posted an FD&A (incl. future development capital) of
$4.16/boe for proved reserves and $5.79/boe for 2P reserves in
2009 on a net capex program of $1.4 million. This is the 2
nd
lowest figure we have seen to date, which means EPS should
remain near the top of its peer group.
4. Chesapeake Joint Venture To Lead The Way
Although Epsilon was able to reach close to 14 mmcf/d in
production by the end of 2009, it has made several dramatic
changes in 2010. Virtually all of the international assets are gone
and EPS’s fortunes in the near-term are in the hands of
Chesapeake Energy and the joint venture on the Highway 706
project in Pennsylvania. With as many as 35 gross wells to drill
over the next couple of years, EPS should benefit with a stable
production base of more than 30 mmcf/d by the end of 2011.
Conclusion and Recommendation
Epsilon has done a very commendable job of meeting various
production goals while maintaining strong financial flexibility over the
past year. We look for the initiation of drilling by Chesapeake and
additional EPS wells in the Bakken as potential catalysts in the next
few months. We maintain our
BUY
recommendation and our 12-
month target price of
$4.60