As much as I want Century to beat their first gold pour date at Lamaque
posted on
Apr 04, 2010 09:27PM
and surprise the market positively, giving us a quicker bump in our share price, Production05 has raised some very good points that makes me agree that a slower start up date would be better for us in the medium term.
Here are his posts which can be found at www.stockigloo.com
If one was to wear a PR campaign hat then first gold pour in April or May is better for short term positive market vibes AND FOR SHAREHOLDER CONFIDENCE IN THIS MANAGEMENT TEAM. Beating expectations is something this company NEVER did in the past. Long time shareholders suffered deeply and continually. Long time Century shareholders deserve the world for all that they have suffered through (even pre-financial crisis) during a period of the highest gold prices in the history of the planet. However, when one puts on the operating efficiency hat then the view of a June 1st gold pour may be preferable. With 200 tpd mining achieved at the end of March (assuming peak at 200 tpd for March, and not an avg of 200 tpd for the month), then we may be looking at about 3,000 to 3,500 tonnes of ore stockpiled in March. If the company delivers on the target of 200 - 300 tpd ore mined in April then we may be looking at a further 6,000 to 8,000 tonnes of ore stockpiled in April. This would bring us to a total of somewhere between 9,000 to 11,500 tonnes of ore stockpiled at the end of April. Now, the company`s target for ore mining is 500 - 800 average for May. Let`s assume they deliver on that. Let`s also assume they start the crushing process at mid May, with the intentions of first gold pour on June 1st (to hit the clock target on the company`s website). It would likely mean a further 8,000 - 9,000 tonnes of ore gets stockpiled in the first half of May. If all goes well, this would now bring the stockpiled ore total up to somewhere between 17,000 to 21,000 tonnes of ore. If they are still mining 500 - 800 tpd in the second half of May, I can easily see them mixing in ore from the 17,000 to 21,000 tonne stockpile, to enable them to run 1,200 tpd through the mill once processing start up begins. I think running 1,200 tpd through the mill starting in mid May is much more efficient than running maybe 400 - 600 tpd (daily mined + from stockpile) through the mill starting mid April. Under this scenario, I can see them using the stockpile ore to enable them to process 1,200 tpd (through the mill) for both the second half of May and June, and maybe part of July. As such (from the presentation): ``average daily tonnage is expected to average 1200-1400 tpd for 2010 as new zones are brought into production in the latter part half of 2010`` This statement may be refering to tpd average from the milling operation for 2010. Who knows - only time will tell I suppose. posted by production05 at 11:27 AM on Apr 4, 2010 production05 said... It seems to me that the entire Lamaque ramp up plan is geared towards achieving the Deutsche Bank performance objectives. The Deutsche Bank agreement (filed Jan. 14th on SEDAR) includes a lot of confusing lawyer talk, as usual. However, I think we can focus in on a few of the key wordings. They mentioned specifically ``processed ore`` and ``production rate``. They don`t mention mined ore in the key performance objectives. As a result, I think milled process rates will be the key to everything. Firstly, to have the first US$5M come available to us (from the US$15M performance escrow account) we need to install the crushing equipment (to the satisfatory of DB), and, we need to process 1,200 tpd for 14 consecutive days. The stockpiled ore should ensure we hit all 14 days in a row (if we happen to have 1 bad mining day in between, the 14 day count doesn`t have to start all over again). If Century is following the plan I described in the main post (processing 1,200 tpd through the mill by mid May), we might be able to satisfy this processing requirement and gain access to the first US$5M from escrow maybe in early June. Secondly, to gain access to the remaining US$9M from escrow Century need to hit a Lamaque ``production rate`` of 70,000 ounces for 4 consecutive months. With a 95% recovery rate and 4.76 g/t, I figured that Century will need to average 1,340 tpd through the mill for the 4 months in order to achieve this performance objective. Thirdly, with regards to the start up comittment guarantee, the target appears to be the exact same as the one for gaining access to the US$9M from escow. Century need to hit a Lamaque ``production rate`` of 70,000 ounces for 4 consecutive months. I don`t see any near-term date that this has to be achieved by. I only saw something about all achievements have to be made by 59th month (or something like that). That`s a long time away. San Juan has been pledged as the start up guarantee. It will be released once the 70,000 ounce for 4 consecutive month performance rate has been achieved. As a further note, the DB agreement restricts Century from making any acquisitions until the 70,000 ounce for 4 consecutive month productuion run rate has been achieved. I like this restriction a lot. It forces Peggy and 100% of Century time to be focused on delivering at Lamaque. I LIKE THIS RESTRICTION A LOT. Century can still make a small acquisition at anytime, but only up to $5M (cash + non-cash). There is not much you can get for $5M though