Sort of found an answer to the question of NPV/NAV, by reading the Lamaque TR on the CMM website like I guess I should have done.

Their TR assumes a ramp-up to 160k oz/yr. With $800 POG and 10% discount rate, the calculated NPV of Lamaque back then was $150M.

Happily, a little graph in the report is used to extrapolate NPV based on POG; at $1200 POG, Lamaque's NPV is $350M.

However, they're only shooting for what, a 60k oz/yr rate by end of 2010? At $1200 POG and 10%, assuming capital costs remain proportional, I guess at 60k oz/yr it's only worth around $130M.

Add a few million for properties and San Juan's production, and CMM is fairly priced (assuming $1200 POG) if you assume they won't go past 60k oz/yr.

So, basically, as many people have already stated, CMM has to demonstrate the ability to meet and exceed targets for the share price to appreciate. If they can build faith that they'll be able to reach 160k oz/yr in Lamaque, and if the market retains faith in POG staying up where it is now, then Century should hit $1.

And there should be no fundamental reason for the share price to go below this level, barring gross incompetence of course.

Any movement towards expanding beyond this plan (e.g. by drilling to expand San Juan's P&P, increasing mine life by increasing P&P at Lamaque, increasing San Juan production significantly, exploring the damn Erika property for crying out loud, or some sort of profitable acquisition) would obviously add somewhat to the share value.

Any comments?