>If the economics support it (that means we get the money back in a few years), the project gets the go ahead.

I agree with what you're saying, however there is also another thing to consider. Even if the economics do not look that great today, they might look great in the future. Exxon could then say they are going to go ahead with the project, but that doesn't necessarily mean they have to commit huge amounts of money right away.

In other words, even if the economics are marginal, reserves are getting harder and harder to find. I doubt XOM would walk away from it. Point Thompson is a good example. So far they have submitted 20 development plans, but have yet to develop. Why would they do that? Probably because it wasn't very economical to do so, but if they gave up the leases, someone else would scoop them up.

In any case, it's probably a lot more complicated than testing a few wells and saying yes or no to the project.

As for the gas price they use being low, yes, it probably will be. Like Michael Lynch said recently, "When crude oil sells for $20/bbl, ExxonMobil can make money. When it sells for more, they make more"