Ben Law is not the only one that thinks the Beetaloo is a hydrocarbon rich area. Every article I've read about the area states that this is the case. I can totally understand how most people are not happy about Falcons involvement, considering the financial situation, but to bash the potential of the Beetaloo because of that has no credibility whatsoever.
The hydrocarbons are most certainly there. The 'prize' is the free flowing oil. It might still be there, then again, it might not be. Chances are that it is, and with modern siesmic, the chances of finding it are also good. However, finding it takes money, money that Falcon currently doesn't have a lot of. But that has nothing to do with the prospectivity of the play.
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Petroleum Geology and Geochemistry of Middle Proterozoic McArthur Basin, Northern Australia II: Assessment of Source Rock Potential
I. H. Crick (2), C. J. Boreham (2),
AAPG Bulletin
Volume 72 (1988)
Five potential source rocks have been discovered in the middle Proterozoic of the McArthur basin. The lacustrine Barney Creek Formation (McArthur Group) and the marine Velkerri Formation (Roper Group) compare favorably in thickness and potential with demonstrated petroleum source rocks in the Phanerozoic. The former contains up to 7% total organic carbon (TOC) and kerogen types I and II. TOC values in the latter range up to 6.5% and the kerogen is type II. Petrographic examination shows the organic matter is mostly lamalginite, which on maturation yields "nonfluorescent lamalginite" and bitumen. Extractable hydrocarbon yields from mature samples indicate that good to excellent source rocks are present and there is ample evidence of migration having occurred.