"We have some big projects on the list: Gorgon, Wheatstone, Sunrise, Pluto and several others, plus a bunch of coal seam methane-based LNG projects in Queensland."

Falcon's Beetaloo project probably is in the 'several others' category ;)

http://ibtimes.com.au/articles/20091113/australias-place-in-the-gas-boom_all.htm

Australia's Place In The Gas Boom

By Aireview

13 November 2009 @ 08:06 am AEST

The International Energy Agency this week confirmed a very important point about Australia by omission in its latest World Energy Outlook.

It's all about the potential for gas, of which Australia has a lot, and coal, which Australia also has a lot .

The IEA sees oil consumption falling as the world gradually gets a handle on carbon emission, with gas consumption jumping, especially in the area from India north to China.

In absolute terms it still sees coal as the most important energy source because of the needs of the power industry, which will not slacken over the next 20 years.

However, it warned that the unexpected boom in North American unconventional gas production (shale gas), together with the current recession's depressive impact on demand, is expected to contribute to an acute glut of gas supply in the next few years.

"Our analysis of trends in gas demand and capacity, based on a bottom-up assessment of ongoing investment and capacity additions."

But the Agency added:

"With the assumed resumption of global economic growth from 2010, demand for natural gas worldwide is set to resume its long-term upwards trend, though the pace of demand growth hinges critically on the strength of climate policy action.

"Constraints on the rate at which low-carbon technologies can be deployed, and the low carbon content of gas relative to coal and oil, mean that gas demand will continue to expand."

That glut should pass by around 2015 onwards, with growth increasingly being driven by the Asian region.

But Australia is largely not mentioned in the Outlook summary, except in relation to possibly holding large unknown reserves of this 'unconventional gas' referred to above, such as coal seam methane and shale gas (shale gas is one of the two emerging technologies in the US and Canada that have seen a huge drop in natural gas prices this year).

However the IEA says such will be the surge in demand for new supplies of gas, that the coming years will see rising levels of concern "about the security of energy supplies.

"The increasing concentration of the world's remaining conventional oil and gas reserves in a small group of countries, including Russia and resource-rich Middle East countries, would increase their market power and ability to influence prices.

"The non-OECD countries as a whole are projected to account for almost all of the projected increase in global natural gas production between 2007 and 2030.

"The Middle East sees the biggest increase in output (and in exports) in absolute terms: that region holds the largest reserves and has the lowest production costs, especially when the gas is produced in association with oil.

"Iran and Qatar account for much of the growth in output. Africa, Central Asia (notably Turkmenistan), Latin America and Russia also see significant growth in production.

"OECD Europe and Asia-Pacific see their imports rise in volume terms in both scenarios."

The IEA said the 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are set to play an increasingly important role in global energy markets in the decades ahead.

"Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam collectively make up one of the world's most dynamic and diverse regions, with an economy as large as Canada and Mexico combined, and a population that exceeds that of the European Union.

"Their energy consumption is already comparable to that of the Middle East and is set to continue to grow rapidly from a comparatively low per-capita level, fuelled by rapid economic and population growth, and by continuing urbanisation and industrialisation.

"In the Reference Scenario, ASEAN primary energy demand expands by 76% between 2007 and 2030, an average annual rate of growth of 2.5% ? much faster than the average rate in the rest of the world.

"Reflecting the current economic weakness, demand is projected to grow modestly in the near term, before quickening.

"Coupled with the emergence of China and India on the global energy scene, these trends point to a refocusing of global energy activity towards Asia."

And that's where Australia will play a major part.

We have some big projects on the list: Gorgon, Wheatstone, Sunrise, Pluto and several others, plus a bunch of coal seam methane-based LNG projects in Queensland.

All will be based here, in a safe, stable member of the OECD, with good rule of law, welcoming investment climate, good work force and solid management of the economy.

Australia will in fact be the biggest energy supplier inside the OECD, especially in terms of gas.

The only things against us are possible labour and resource cost problems in the next decade.

All our projects will aim to supply the Asian region.

And that places us in the heart of the fastest growing area of demand, according to the OECD.

"While the OECD imports less oil in 2030 than today in the (WEO's) Reference Scenario, some non-OECD countries, notably China and India, see big increases in their imports.

"Most gas-importing regions, including Europe and developing Asia, also see their net imports rise."

"On a country basis, China is forecast to move past the US soon after 2025 to become the world's biggest spender on oil and gas imports (in monetary terms) while India's spending on oil and gas imports surpasses that of Japan soon after 2020 to become the world's third-largest importer."

On that unconventional gas, the IEA says (and here's where Australia gets a mention in the summary of the Outlook):

"Outside North America, unconventional resources have not yet been appraised in detail and gas production is still small.

"Some regions, including China, India, Australia and Europe, are thought to hold large resources, but there are major potential obstacles to their development in some cases.

"These include limitations on physical access to resources, the requirement for large volumes of water for completing wells, the environmental impact and the distance of resources from the existing pipeline infrastructure.

"In addition, the geological characteristics of resources that have not yet been appraised may present serious technical and economic challenges to their development.

"In the Reference Scenario, unconventional gas output worldwide rises from 367 billion cubic metres in 2007 to 629 bcm in 2030, with much of the increase coming from the United States and Canada.

"The share of unconventional gas in total US gas production rises from over 50% in 2008 to nearly 60% in 2030.

"In Asia-Pacific (outside Australia) and Europe, output is projected to take off in the second half of the projection period, though the share of unconventional gas in total production in those regions remains small.

"Globally, the share of unconventional gas rises from 12% in 2007 to 15% in 2030."

This projection is subject to considerable uncertainty, especially after 2020; there is potential for output to increase much more.

Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist, said at this week's launch of the World Energy Outlook that "The era of cheap oil is over".

"We said it last year and continued to say it throughout the year even though oil went to $30 a barrel."

He said the world needs a deal in Copenhagen. "We need a signal for the energy industry. Without that, nothing will move."

The IEA sees higher energy efficiency, rapid growth in renewable energy, and increased use of nuclear power as being critical to move the world away from fossil fuels.

As well, in the automobile industry six of every ten cars sold in 2030 are hybrids or electric.

The IA says for global carbon emission to be controlled, the price of carbon will need to reach $US50 a tonne in developed economies by 2020 and $US110 by 2030.

In developing countries the price of carbon would need to reach $US30 a tonne by 2020 and $US50 by 2030.

Developing countries will need to invest $US200 billion a year to move away from fossil fuels.

But fossil fuels will still be needed, especially gas and coal.

"Global energy use is set to fall in 2009 ? for the first time since 1981 on any significant scale ? as a result of the financial and economic crisis; but, on current policies, it would quickly resume its long-term upward trend once economic recovery is underway.

"In our Reference Scenario, world primary energy demand is projected to increase by 1.5% per year between 2007 and 2030, from just over 12 000 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) to 16 800 Mtoe ? an overall increase of 40%.

"Developing Asian countries are the main drivers of this growth, followed by the Middle East. Projected demand growth is slower than in WEO-2008, reflecting mainly the impact of the crisis in the early part of the projection period, as well as of new government policies introduced during the past year."

"On average, demand declines marginally in 2007-2010, as a result of a sharp drop in 2009 ? preliminary data point to a fall in that year of up to 2%. "

The IEA said demand growth rebounds thereafter, averaging 2.5% per year in 2010-2015.

With the pace of demand growth easing progressively after 2015, as emerging economies mature and global population growth slows.

In absolute terms, the IEA says coal sees by far the biggest increase in demand over the projection period, followed by gas and oil.

"Yet oil remains the single largest fuel in the primary fuel mix in 2030, even though its share drops, from 34% now to 30%.

"Oil demand (excluding biofuels) is projected to grow by 1% per year on average over the projection period, from 85 million barrels per day in 2008 to 105 mb/d in 2030.

"All the growth comes from non-OECD countries and the IEA said that OECD demand actually falls.

"As conventional oil production in countries not belonging to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) peaks next year, so most of the increase in output would need to come from OPEC countries, which hold the bulk of remaining recoverable conventional oil resources.

"The main driver of demand for coal and gas is the inexorable growth in energy needs for power generation.

"The IEA expects world electricity demand to grow at an annual rate of 2.5% to 2030 with over 80% of the growth in non-OECD countries.

"Globally, additions to power-generation capacity total 4 800 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 ? almost five times the existing capacity of the United States.

"The largest additions (around 28% of the total) occur in China.

"Coal remains the backbone fuel of the power sector, its share of the global generation mix rising by three percentage points to 44% in 2030.

"Nuclear power output grows in all major regions bar Europe, but its share in total generation falls."

But its gas that is the fuel (fossil) for the next 20 years, according to the IEA.

"The world's remaining resources of natural gas are easily large enough to cover any conceivable rate of increase in demand through to 2030 and well beyond, though the cost of developing new resources is set to rise over the long term."

"Proven gas reserves at the end of 2008 totalled more than 180 tcm globally ? equal to about 60 years of production at current rates.

"Over half of these reserves are located in just three countries: Russia, Iran and Qatar.

"Estimated remaining recoverable gas resources are much larger.

"The long-term global recoverable gas resource base is estimated at more than 850 trillion cubic metres (tcm) (including only those categories of resource with currently demonstrated commercial production).

"Unconventional gas resources - mainly coal bed methane, tight gas (from low-permeability reservoirs) and shale gas - make up about 45% of this total."

Contrast that with oil.

"The IEA last year undertook the most comprehensive global study of oil field production decline rates and warned this week that that the world would have to find "four new Saudi Arabias" - the country with the world's biggest oil resources, with production capacity of about 12.5m barrels per day - to overcome the production decline from old fields over the next 21 years.

"Like many in the energy industry, the IEA maintains that the world has plenty of oil and natural gas reserves, but that access to those reserves is constrained by politics and countries erecting investment barriers.