Re: In terms of the scary part of the play...here we sit...
in response to
by
posted on
Jan 14, 2010 10:16AM
Developing large acreage positions of unconventional and conventional oil and gas resources
Its still a simple bet most likely quoted 1:10 according to rumours and facts of late
...the silence is deafening as we wait for the feb deadline...we have stated that we think it will be a deadline for another deadline but needless to say it will keep the mako game alive a bit longer...as we look back to how this whole ball of yarn that exxon is rolling has unravelled...we look to a couple points...one...exxon came in hoping to find easy oil...they fracced where they wanted did as they pleased...when the time came for the szolnok they tried but knew they hadnt the tech or experience to deliver...thus the passer by attempt of one well 3 fracs...can a resource of this magnitude be judged by this one well...thats the bet with exxon right now...did that tell them they were in over their heads...if so did that one well lead to the checkwriting excercise to acquire xto...the past helps show the future...2 failed(we dont buy this)wells then they drilled a swimming pool...if exxon stays and pays it will be a very good sign for the future...if they walk...well then we might have turn the lights off...but either way we are once again betting on the exxon...is it coincidence they acquired xto when they did...maybe...does one well define the trough...maybe...if exxon stays and xto makes this work does it mean fo shareholder value increase...absolutely...not to mention the fact that the "others" will want to get involved in fo 100% owned land which is said to be the juiciest of it all(no wonder exxon no likey fo)...and dont discount the possibility that if XOM stays there wont be more interest in rooland maybe xto will be eating some timtams in the future...a bunch of ifs...but the one constant...xom...betting on whether they stay or go...play your cards as you will...the xto card up exxon sleave may infact be bruners best trumpp card ever...the downside is only .19 cent now...lets roll the dice...it wont be long now...gofo and g'day