While it would be nice to see a windfall in Falcon's share price, any buyout is most likely a couple of years away. The NIS drilling in Hungary will have little effect on the share price either way, unless they hit a very good gas interval in one of the current drilling sites. We won't get any definative results on that for a number of months, and the overall size of the resources in place for NIS in the Mako are quite limited by comparison to the Beetaloo, so share price appreciation would be moderate given that Falcon already has a market cap approaching $200 million.

The real price appreciation potential is with the Hess deal for the foreseeable future and they probably won't start their 5 well exploratory test program until early 2014 with results not expected for quite some time after that program starts. The real value will come when Hess starts proving up the massive shale oil and gas in place in the Beetaloo and the world press starts to compare the Beetaloo to the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale plays in the US - in my opinion.

I was also a little surprised at the share price weakness over the past few days, but the volume was low - so took advantage of some of the day trading weakness to add a few more, after watching Ben Law's presentation to the 2010 AAPG conference again!! I personally don't think that Hess can afford to risk losing out on the Beetaloo property until they move into the exploratory drilling program, but I will have my fingers and maybe toes crossed for another two weeks!

Here is a link to Ben Law's presentation to the AAPG in case you haven't seen it, bearing in mind that Ben is not a gifted orator:

http://vidego.multicastmedia.com/player.php?v=ul82pcj1