Interesting topic for discussion.

Re Hungary - one of the posters here (forget who) was at one of Falcon's presentations a few months back and he said that O'Quigley was much more guarded and less enthusiastic when the subject of Hungary was mentioned (30% tax maybe?).

Whatever the reason for his hesitancy, I can't envisage a situation where Falcon would sell out Australia and SA and be left holding only the "small potatoes" of Hungary. Craven and O'Quigley don't seem like the kind of players who'd be interested in such small pickings. I don't know the legalities but I don't suppose that Falcon could sell its interests in Hungary without giving NIS (Gazprom) first refusal so what you say makes sense to me.

If Chevron is one of the 4 majors interested in AUS, and I think we can safely say they will be, then it seems logical that if they have offered to buy out FOA that they'd kill 2 birds with one stone and take on SA as well.

But even if not Chevron, it also seems logical to suppose that if 4 majors are interested, at least 1 of them will have expressed interest in buying out FOA rather than entering into a farm-out deal. So it seems safe to say that a buy-out deal is probably on the table right now.

And as you rightly point out, the Falcon management have made their intentions quite clear, to sell rather than to produce. So given the choice and the right price, I suspect they would favour a buy-out over a farm-out.

My thoughts are that if it's Chevron in the frame, things will go as you say, but if it's another major, then Falcon is more likely to just sell AUS and nothing will change with Hungary and SA.

The longer we wait for news, the more likely I think it is that we'll see a buy-out. I don't think we'll hear anything before 22 August which is the closing date for acceptance of the offer to the FOA shareholders. I can't see them making any kind of announcement before all the loose ends are tied up.

I have a question of my own - in the case of a buy-out do we as shareholders have any say in the matter? I remember reading about Cove Energy (John Craven's previous success story) and the shareholders having to vote on the takeover.

Of course, as we all know only too well, with Falcon you have to expect the unexpected. But I can't envisage a scenario that doesn't involve the share price going up so I'm feeling pretty good about all things Falcon.