Re: Serious selling going on - any rumours?
posted on
Apr 25, 2014 03:50PM
From Kip:
Beginning about 2 hours ago, roughly $400,000 USD in selling pressure hit Falcon Oil and Gas. The selling took place after the European markets closed, which like most of you Im sure, struck me as odd.
On the Toronto Venture Exchange, the volume is more than 5 million shares (the average is just 300k/day), and with a last trade of .16 CDN, the loss is roughly 14% on the day. Here in the US (pink sheets), the volume is just 210,000 shs, with a last trade of .145 USD
.a loss of close to 10%.
Remember, for each seller there is a buyer, which is why we must divide the amount of selling (or buying) in half to find the true number.
The stock price is actually higher than it was earlier, so whether the selling came from a forced liquidation (margin account, hurt by losses in other stocks), or from someone(s) that just wanted out, the selling looks to be complete.
My thoughts? In my 30 years as an investor, I have yet to see this kind of selling pressure result in good news, so no
this selling is clearly not a positive
.but nor is it an absolute harbinger of bad news to come. Just to be clear, my comments do not mean that we are certain to have bad news on the way from Falcon, only that I cannot remember seeing good news immediately following this kind of selling pressure in a small cap stock.
Having said this, here is the comment that I just received back from Falcons CEO (Philip OQuigley): "Falcon knows of no reason why the shares are trading lower today".
OQuigleys quote actually supports my initial thought. My initial thought was that this selling resembled a forced liquidation. Typically this takes place when someone has a margin call (maybe they owned a tech stock that has been beaten up) and the operations dept. is forced to take action. Trust me
when the margins dept sells an account out, they do it pretty much exactly like what we saw with Falcon this morning
.forced selling of anything and everything in the account, and it can be 100% indiscriminate of the current price or of the effect it might have on the price of a small cap company without the support of major market makers.
In addition, OQuigley has been nothing but a straight shooter with me, and if he tells me that they know of no reason why the shares would trade lower, then I absolutely believe him. Bottom line; this selling pressure likely has nothing to do with a material news event at Falcon that could be perceived as being negative news. Because, if it does, then the seller would be guilty of insider trading
something that we would hope the regulators would be all over.
T