I am only speculating, but I think the first real positive upswing won't come until there is some clear indication of lots of gas in the Beetaloo with Origin. Origin should be drilling by late spring or early summer, but we may not get any real flow data until they move beyond the first couple of delineation wells. However, if the gas is there, and recoverable in large quantities the news will spread from the wells to the market - even before Origin has done any horizontal testing.

The granting of a license in the Karoo in July/August under the new regulations, along with the details on whatever Philip has already worked out with Chevron, should help drive some further buying in the stock. This may not in itself lead to a very large jump in the share price since the timeline for any gas flowing in the Karoo is probably 4 plus years away. What this will do is bring in more of the institutional investors and brokerage houses as the news from S.A. and from Australia, along with Philip's many dog and pony shows, should keep the demand for Falcon shares moving up from that point onwards.

That being said, I don't expect any real runs on the stock up towards a buck or so until Origin is raving about the flow rates from the first two or three horizontal wells, and they know that it really is multiple TCF's of gas that will eventually come out of the Beetaloo.