Back of napkin
$70 million / 125 million shares out = 60 cents
$18 million cash /125 million shares out = 14 cents
Total cash value of offer and FIS cash today is 74 cents/share
The offer
Today's snapshot
.355 DML = 1.48(.355) = 525 cents
The newco is basically left with the other 50% of the Alpha/PLS deal. Alpha is valued at $37 million.
If the Newco is 1:1 shares out as FIS then the Newco's portion of PLS would be $37 million/125 million shares out = 30 cents.
Going back to the above $70 million offer, $18 million cash, add 30 more cents per share for fair relative valuation.
That's a $1.04 target all things being equal.
Newco's holdings are given a 4 cent valuation today given the 78 cent close.
It would be a no brainer if DML were 4.40.
Variables
DML share price
AMW share price