5/15/17

fdesloges wrote 5/15/17 3:03 p.m.

I think your analysis below is rather incomplete tj. 

Say the final world wide value of EEStor, 10 years from now, with full licensing at 20%  royalty is *really* worth $10,000 per share (or 2500 G$ for 250M fully diluted ESU shares).

Now discount it to today at $1000 to $2000 per share for time and competition risk /Sauron eye discount (250-500 G$).

Now consider what you get if Google gives you its shares in exchange of EEStor's: you don't only get 20% royalty, you get the full EEStor sales minus all costs but depreciation and tax. That will probably end up anywhere between 40% and 70% of the sales, depending on the ED level we hit. So you have to divide the $1000-2000 by a further 2 to 3.5 to be fair, so anything between $280 and $1000 per share.

Plus you need to consider the *other* thing you get with the Google stock, that is the share of Google earning to come independently of EEStor acquisition. Which today is already priced at 657 G$, and which, considering the car-as-a-service and other business ahead would probably be worth double that. So if you're given 10% of the business, you're also given anywhere between 65 $G of other assets. Which divided by ESU ¼B shares is worth $260 per share.

All that combined would then place your fair valuation anywhere between $100 and $750.

And that's considering that the long term value for the EEStor 20% royalty in all possible world wide markets would *really* be worth $10,000 share, which I now kind of doubt. More later when I publish my next thorough valuation update...

So just a reminder that $200-500 this year, in (say) Google shares, depending of ED level (and thus gross margins), would still be a quite fair valuation.

Thomas John /tj wrote 1:18 p.m.

I always go back to the rough calculation that under a 20% licensing model, EESTOR shareholders should see $10 per share for every $billion in annual market sales. So it comes down to the size of the market and the likely % EESTOR could capture under a licensing model. Say it's $1 trillion worth of market sales. That would translate in $10,000 a share. You sell out the company to google at $100 a share, you've just given $9,000 of your $10,000 a share to the existing Google shareholders!

https://eestor.slack.com/archives/C14UJG00N/p1494874987818589