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Message: Re: But what does this mean?
3
Gil
May 15, 2008 01:55PM
3
May 15, 2008 05:03PM
3
Gil
May 15, 2008 05:30PM

Here is what I posted so far at IV:



Seems to me that many people are jumping the gun so to speak, probably out of frustration, and want to jump to the final play of international courts. That still seems premature to me.
We were given the impression that Chavez was going to make a decision by the end of this week. That should have put the final cap on the issue.
What we have here is not a statment from Chavez, at least it does not mention Chavez's Imprimatur in the article, so we do not know whether Ortega speaks for herself of for Chavez. I lean more towards for herself because if Chavez gave his decision it would most likely be all over the article that Hugo said so and so.
She just may be playing a political battle ( using the media ) with the ministry of mining and the public, and in the process to force Chavez's hand.

Because Chavez's hand is not visible in today's Reuters article both Crystallex and Gold Reserve may be holding back in making any official comments.
But lets assume that the article represents the position of the government.
Note that I have no leagal expertise or consulted with any legal expert, merely my two bit opinion.
I can not hazzard a guess as to what happens with Crystallex, also because I hold no KRY shares, it is merely a curiosity to me.
GRZ has 133 million dollars at hand ( that includes the cash earmarked for the mill ) and with 56 million shares that gives us a base of about $2.36 per share. So any selling below that price is shear panic selling and not based on any rationality.
None of the comments used as an excuse for taking back our permit have any reasonable basis so on that point we have a very good reason for compensation.
We apparently spent about 300 million on the Brisas project. That automatically gives us about $5.35 more per share.
Whether we get any compensation for the Brisas property itself is less certain. Venezuela may not take it from us immediately hence argue that we are in posession of it and therefore no compensation for it. So there could only be compensation for the loss of use or profit from that property which was aquired with Venezuela's full knowledge of its intended purpose.
I would give another dollar per share for the property's loss of use.
I also assume that we still get to keep Choco 5.
So basic cash $2.36
plus cash expended $5.35
Brisas $1.00
--------------------------------------
Total $8.71
Then there may be a bit more so a round figure of $9 per share is possible and available for Choco development.
3
Gil
May 16, 2008 05:26AM
3
May 16, 2008 05:57AM
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