The biggest issue that pos out is that Hugo is flat broke. These people are such amateurs that they say it proudly. Ortega is broke. Sanz is broke.
The oil producers are eating their young simply to sell theirs. OPEC will not lower production to accommodate Hugo.
The other big problem that Hugo has is that population is shrinking not expanding whcih means he really cannot grow. Who will man his army? This is not like Cuba where they can keep people on the island. All people have to do is cross the border to leave.
Charting says there is an opportunity in the next two weeks for resolution.