Re: questions, comments and the beginning of a new season
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 23, 2011 03:07PM
New Discovery Resulting in a 20KM Mineralized Gold Belt
For those of us who don’t easily add up the numbers in their heads, this is how the arithmetic comes out in terms of ounces:
At 2 grams per tonne, taking the midpoint of your “don’t-need-much” 30 to 40 million tonnes, we get 70 million grams. According to the ounce to gram conversion table (1 ounce = 28.3495231 grams), we get approximately 2.4 million ounces (2.469177 million ounces, to be exact).
At 2 grams per tonne, taking your “I’d-love-to-see” 100 million tonnes, we get 200 million grams. According to the ounce to gram conversion table, we get approximately 7.0 million ounces (7.054792 million ounces, to be exact).
As I understand it, most of the initially defined ounces will be near surface (and, for the most part, open-pitable). GNH’s current market capitalization is 19.70 CAD (at 0.17 CAD per share). So, according to your “don’t-need-much” 2.4 million ounces, the market is valuing those ounces at approximately $8.20 each. The market is also saying being near-surface in SE Quebec is no better than being deep-in-the-ground in distant parts of the Yukon. Besides that, the market is saying the company will never extend its initial discovery or ever find any additional ounces anywhere. Interesting. May I add, possibly a little on the harsh side? Have you ever heard of any other cases of $8.20 per ounce near-surface valuations?
If you think $8.20 per ounce is on the high side, using your “I’d-love-to-see” 100 million tonne scenario, we come up with an approximate $2.20 per ounce valuation. Of course, that $2.20 will come down further if the company ever extends its initial discovery or ever finds additional ounces anywhere else.
I’m interested in your objective and realistic thinking. On the one hand, I’m not interested in some dream numbers or wishful numbers. On the other hand, I’m not interested in attempts to sound sensible by inventing some phony low numbers. Do you think the initial resource estimate will come in closer to your “don’t-need-much” 30 to 40 million tonnes (and value the ounces at $8.20 each at the current market cap) or will it come in closer to your “I’d-love-to-see” 100 million tonnes (and value the ounces at $2.20 each at the current market cap)?
As an investor from the USA with little experience (beyond being lucky advantageously getting in and out of BAA this year and last year), I’m not up on the going near-surface in-the-ground Quebec prices? When the market comes to its senses, how high do you think it will value the ounces in GNH’s initial resource estimate? Is it realistic to expect an estimated additional percentage valuation to be added for the prospective future ounces? After all, presently there are new Yukon prospecting companies with very sizable market capitalizations (far beyond that of our lowly but beloved GNH) that have yet to even begin drilling for core samples.
What is it about SE Quebec that makes the ounces of gold there less desirable than the ounces in the Yukon? Are the bears there nastier and more quick-tempered than those farther North (and, consequently, more hazardous to miners)? Does Big Foot hang out on GNH’s properties? In terms of GNH’s current stock price, how much longer do you think it will be held down because of Big Foot or the other unnamed monsters of the woods?