Developing Bellechasse-­Timmins Gold Deposit

New Discovery Resulting in a 20KM Mineralized Gold Belt

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Message: Re: What are we worth ? part 2
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Nov 25, 2011 09:35PM
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Nov 26, 2011 01:28AM
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Nov 26, 2011 11:49AM
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Nov 26, 2011 03:33PM
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Nov 26, 2011 04:43PM
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Nov 27, 2011 06:25AM

Assuming a taxrate of 28.4%
Assuming starup-costs of 170M$
Assuming it takes 1 year to come out with the resource estimate
Assuming it takes one year tio build the plant and eqipment
Assuming it takes 5 years to mine the deposit and that we mine it in an even amount
Assuming we have a 2g/ton resource of 500 000oz
Assuming we can write off the 170M$ cost right away against income

using data from my previous post

I am using the following discount rates

For a producing mine 15%
While we wait for the resouce estimate 400% (Assuming that we want a high reward for taking on risk while the resource estimate is out, but once it is out we are willing to accept a lot less)

I get an NPV of 23.85494M$
and 95.41975M$ as we build the mill etc..

today that 24M$ market cap means we should be around 20.5cents/share.

When the estimate comes out we should jump to lets say 4x that so 80cents.

I am assuming here that my previous cost estimate included interest costs etc... if we raise aditional shares that would obviouly be dilutive.

This of course assuming we have no other projects that are viable. To be fair we should do this for all posiblke outcomes weighed by their probabilities (eg 1g/ton, 7g/ton etc...)

So in my opinion, and keeping in mind I have no particular expertise in this domain, I think a current fair price for GNH is around 20cents, more since we are expecting a resource estimate in less then 12 months, but I dont think we can assume a straight line apreciation untill we get it, it'll be a big jump on the day it gets released.

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Nov 27, 2011 05:01PM
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Nov 30, 2011 09:31AM
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Nov 30, 2011 01:54PM
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