OT: Silver is the place to be. Part1
posted on
Jan 04, 2008 10:55AM
Am posting a few of my own opinions gathered over recent while. A lot of reading so if time to you is of the essence, don't bother.
If you have the time and are not convinced about the economy and the role of PMs, read them, perhaps I can convince you?
Here is my first part:
Prognosis for US Economy. Collected by E.G. Version: 2007December.
1. U.S. is too much in debt and deficit.
2. Large portion of debt held in foreign hands.
3. Debt has to be paid for through interest rates.
4. Dollar needs support because too many bills are printed, diluting the value. Foreigners will not hold on for long to depreciating dollar if it is not supported. ( "I now believe that at present, the US current account deficit is indeed unsustainable, and I expect the dollar to fall (perhaps sharply) against other major currencies over the next few years." Robert P. Murphy on 8/13/2007 ) The last half of 2007 has seen the largest short term credit of all time.
5. Interest rates must rise to support the dollar ( compensate for depreciation ) but interest rates also need to be kept down to support the local economy, represent (false) security and prevent a financial collapse. Higher interest rates make it worth-while for foreigners to hold on to dollars for now (Japan).
6. Corporations take production to cheaper foreign sources ( loss of jobs and more dollars out through imports ). They have no allegiance except to make profits.
7. Oil imports appreciate in price because priced in cheaper dollars (politics not helping).
8. Foreign holders of dollars use them to buy out local assets causing profit dollars to leave country and larger portion of country owned by foreign hands therefore eventually even more dollars will end up in foreign hands ( Vicious circle ). ("And the valuable assets that the Chinese are after are not bonds, but real assets such as land, real estate and key US corporations, the same corporations that have made much of their money thanks to outsourcing into China." Boris Sobolev Aug 14, 2007)
9. Higher interest rates will slow down the individual's purchasing power (mortgage, credit card etc.) and trigger bankruptcies ( current subprime defaults are just a tip of an iceberg). Country is in a denied recession while inflation for 2007 is close to 10 percent.
10.Lower purchasing means lower demand for high cost local production = lower local production and more imports (another vicious circle).
11. Then lower tax revenue = Fewer government services ( note recent infrastructure situation), greater deficit (debt) and more dollars printed ( Circle continues ).
12. House prices drop due to higher interest rates, lack of good jobs ( as in big three auto ), lower incomes and finally fall due to average Joe not able to afford (foreclosures). Also lower house prices means fewer tax dollars, more deificit and cutting of services.
They will eventually rise after the dollar they are priced in hits bottom.
13. Eventually foreigners ( China?) will get tired of buying then holding ( perhaps due to politics) depreciating dollars and dump (catastrophic collapse?), dollar devalued. (China already dumping except that thay are retreating slowly not to diminish dollar's value and 'shoot themselves in the foot' )
14. Most significant of all - American public being ignorant of above until too late ( due to false reporting of consumer indexes, joblessness, bad assets as good). Some are becoming aware due to the problem already too big too hide.
Note that there are too many vicious circles that are intertwined and little hope of escaping them.
Long term adjustment
Much lower valued dollar, reducing purchasing power. Higher priced imported commodities. Domestic production at lower wages. Average american poorer due to rampant inflation in commodities and services relative to income, recession ( already present but officially denied ) and leading to possible depression.
Eventually the public realizes that the cause of inflation they see is not global but mostly local - government policies and deceit the villan ( Scapegoat? ) coupled with poor practices that are not regulated. Government infringing on civil rights to control public while serving the few manipulative rich. Terrorism control is an excuse instead of reason for establishing the means of populace control. Anger, cause for extreme views and retaliation, rebellion, anarchy, perhaps civil war or revolution? ( Germany in 1920s? )
Answer:
Divest of any borrowings first.
Invest in precious metals (real money), to lesser degree industrial/necessary resources with real value (production over consumption), energy ( oil, uranium ), basic commodities and nesessary services ( Food - everyone has to eat, health needs ). Unfortunately, invest or move to foreign juristictions that may be more immune to above effects.
Keep the necessary cash for daily use in an insured bank to the extent of the insurance. If holding bullion and residing in States, keep part of bullion personally instead of safety deposit box in bank = could be confiscated.
Tax the very rich? Many will leave country (many have placed assets abroad).
Avoid frills (vacations, restaurants, credit card, gambling, alcohol, tobacco, fashion items including 'gold' jewelry etc.).
Get used to the idea that in your old age there may not be any social security and you will have to provide for yourself.
Force the government off the credit glutony, to represent the people and be willing to take it on the chin in the mean time. Live with the consequences of a recession and try to take hard measures against a depression, example tougher regulations and enforcement. Keep US government from involving the country in foreign military adventures.
Get used to idea that other nations will dictate terms to US instead of being dictated to.