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Message: OT: A personal perspective.

OT: A personal perspective.

posted on Jan 07, 2008 07:41PM

As to the moderation of the board, I want to be psychologically prepared for the worst. One can never anticipate all possibilities. Contributions to the board are not the concern to me but having to chastize or even remove someone's post is. Owners and management of the web site doing it is one thing, one of the members of a forum doing it is something else.

I won't be at the show in Vancouver because I own too few shares in general and ECU in particular ( just a few thousand as a base and short term trade with a few more) so it does not justify the cost. I have many samall fingers in mostly gold stocks and now ECU is my only silver stock.
Yes there will be grumbling if the total is below 200 million. Anything between 200 and 300 is not justified to be grumbled except for the pessimists and bashers. Anything above 300 and everybody should open a bottle of champagne or a great wine. However in my case I do not need much of an excuse, anything at or above my guesstimate of 220 will be cause for celebration.

The problem share price wise is not the bashers and their likely masters.
The one lot trader's manipulating the price are to some extent.
But it is the Goldman Sachs types that are desperate for cash to cover their losses from bad paper and to forstall bankruptcy are. How else did they (I mean GS) manage to reprt a fairly good last quarter? They sold some of their holdings to soften/cover the losses.

That is what is keeping the whole sector down and I fear that this will still continue for a year, or maybe two, until most of the loosers have enough time to write off most of the bad paper.

I am hopeful that factors outside the US will not wait for them to cover their losses in time. That is why PMs are rising in price already and I think it starts slowly and builds momentum as it goes. Last one to not catch a ride will be the biggest looser. In the last days it will be every man for himself. Yes, I was into the gold and bond market around 1980 but did not half enough dough to take full advantage. Interest rates of that time alone paid for half of the house I now live in, built with cash.
Now it looks much worse hence a bigger opportunity awaits.

Sorry for the long rant but it may help someone to have some perspective.

Cheers to the patient.

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