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Message: Trying to cheer us up on a down day

Trying to cheer us up on a down day

posted on Jan 09, 2008 11:48AM

I was just on an Agnico Eagle site and somebody posted the following( I hope it hasn't been posted here earlier):

Analysts forecast silver prices in the $15-30/oz range

Silver, which is revered by some investors as the "poor man's gold," is in for a Nantucket sleigh-ride of price action in 2008, according to market-watchers polled by Platts; these analysts are forecasting annual average silver prices as high as $30/oz this year.

"I'm looking for a clean double [of the price of silver] this year," said John Embry, a partner in the Toronto-based Sprott Assett Management. "We're in the early throes of a serious monetary debasement. It will attract investment in precious metals, and silver [will] be the major beneficiary, trading up as much as a buck in a single day."

Embry continued: "Demand for silver is solid, but you can't get more production. Labor shortages in the mining sector are a critical issue. Silver is a coiled spring [that is ready to unwind], and the everyday market doesn't have a clue. I'm predicting $30/oz [silver price] this year."

Jeffrey Christian, managing director of the New York-based metals consultancy CPM Group, who is not as bullish as Embry, noted that the silver price should average in the mid-teens for 2008.

"It's easy to be bullish [on silver] today," said Christian. "Our published projection for 2008 [which was made around mid-2007] is $15.63/oz for the average. We are looking for higher prices, based primarily on strong investment demand. You have a number of investors who are buying silver for the same reason they're buying gold: They don't believe financial assets are safe."

Christian continued: "The price of silver has risen to a very high level, but it's nowhere near the record highs you're seeing in gold and platinum. Silver will play catchup." A big boost for silver demand will come from the newly created, silver-backed exchange traded funds in Europe, he noted.

James Turk, publisher of GoldMoney newsletter, foresees a silver price of $27.52/oz for 2008, based on a tightening of the silver/-gold ratio in the coming months. "Both silver and gold reached multi-decade highs in May 2006 of $14.85/oz and $720/oz, respectively, with a ratio of 43.6:1 in April of that year," said Turk. "Since then, gold has moved higher but silver is still lagging, and the ratio is now 55:1. This divergence is unusual because silver normally leads during precious metals bull markets, and the ratio falls."

Turk noted that unusual occurrences in markets typically are not long-lasting, so this divergence will end, probably soon given the recent strength in precious metals. "When it does, silver will again out-perform gold," Turk predicted. "I expect gold to end 2008 at around $1,200/oz. If the gold-silver ratio returns to its April 2006 level, then you will see silver at $27.52."

If the blow-off price of $48/oz reached in 1980 were calculated in current dollars, the white metal would command a price of nearly $100/oz, said newsletter writer David Morgan of the Morgan Report.

"It's going to go higher. I'm looking for at least $18/oz, in a range of $18/oz to $20/oz," said Morgan. "It's an historic store of value, and people are looking for solid, tangible investments. I think we will see one more dip, perhaps as low as $12.50/oz, before it takes off."

Analysts see silver as relatively recession proof. The pace in industrial demand for silver is not going to slow down, given eastern Asia's economic growth, and a weakening of Western currencies will only fuel investment demand for the metal as a "safe haven" from inflation and currency depreciation, according to Morgan.

"All this money we've created is blowing up, and people are going to turn to precious metals," said Embry. "The $800/oz gold price of 1980 is probably equivalent to $2,000/oz now."

Created: Jan 7, 2008

http://www.platts.com/Metals/highlights/2008/mp_mw_010708.xml

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