Even though ECU is now a TSE listed stock, I still think the Venture is the best proxy for investor sentiment towards the juniors. Yesterday, with gold breaking out to establish new all-time highs, I believe the Venture was up less than 30 points. Today, while gold and oil were slightly lower, the Venture lost 50 points. And that in a nutshell outlines why ECU is having a tough time.

People point to the HUI to suggest that the juniors are rebounding nicely. The HUI is only 16 of the most liquid junior mining companies, most of which are dual-listed. It therefore offers much lower risk and it is also traded as an exhange traded unit so people can conveniently buy the 'basket' of HUI stocks and not worry about researching all the lessor known juniors, if they want leverage to the sector.

So far the majority of junior miners have not seen any capital inflow. The senior mining stocks and the HUI stocks get the attention and the media coverage. Over time, the rest of the juniors will also see more attention and begin to participate more in the rising leverage of the metals.

So for ECU to be stuck in this range, as money is literally sloshing in and out of the overall markets, should not surprise anyone. I find it very frustrating to see gold at $900 and silver above $16 yet ECU is down by a third since last year. I find it annoying to know when the metals are roaring that ECU is hardly moving, and when the metals are down ECU is also down. But it is what it is, and most of my other juniors are behaving the same way.

Now I would expect that a pending resource update would generate more speculative interest. But I have been afforded the chance to buy more due to the unwillingness of the market to bid ECU higher. That is the bonus, the payoff for having confidence while others are hung up in fear.

We can all make guesses and predictions but until the next update is released, the stock is probably going to be stuck in neutral. IF the numbers surprise to the upside, then I think ECU makes a big gain in a short time, as that will prove the value and allow funds to wade in. IF the numbers come in low, then we are going to have a nasty session or two, but I really dont think much spec premium is baked in right now. So I can live with buying extra trading shares here, and will not lie awake at night wondering what may come to pass. The risk profile looks pretty good to me, in a market that is already overly discounting in the fear.

cheers!

mike