posted on
Jan 25, 2008 05:59AM
Because I do not see any other opinions (alternate) regarding value, am adding more from the subjective angle.
One ounce of silver per share is where I start.
At current silver prices that is $16.
ECU is a small producer but basicly and explorer so I take ten percent of that, $1.60 as the base to start with. That is on the 217 million ounces that we are fairly sure we have.
But there is that additional 800 million that we are likely to have. Even if you are a skeptic then assume 400 million additional ounces.
That additional to me is worth at least a double of the base, i.e. another $1.60 for a total of $3.20.
Then there is the management and location. Both are near ideal. Give me an argument if you disagree.
The management, Mexico, labour costs etc. to me is worth another 50% of the base conservatively, and optimistically 100%.
So take your pick. add another $0.80 or $1.60.
So it is $4 or $4.80.
Yes, it is not only based on the resource in ground, other factors do come into play and weigh in. Just look at some other companies with good to excellent resources but heavily discounted because of political, environmental and energy costs. That discount is often a large proportion of the in ground value, i.e. similar degree of discount to my added premium.
So this is where the share price should be today and not the $2.