posted on
Feb 17, 2008 11:08AM
Sketch and ESL, I do not want to rain on your parade, but to state the other side of the coin.
Charts only show history, they do not provide impetus to our share price in either direction. The lines you or anyone else draws are rarely more than subjectivism.
Yes I do agree that calculating moving averages does help us understand what has and possibly will happen but that is all, it is just probability.
Just look at the game of Poker, that is probability. The players do augment it but only by knowing the othar players. That is how it is with our share price.
Market forces are orders of magnitude more influential in determining our future so that is where we should concentrate on.
The background to our current status is well presented in GWR's post of Barron's Epstein. I highly recommend reading it not once but two or three times.
We know our company's fundamentals, the certain, probable and potential resource. That is the undeniable foundation that supplies upward pressure to our share price and not some historical anecdotes that may be presented in subjective verbiage or chart form. I say upward because of the huge potential this stock has and must eventually go in only one direction.
It is that resource, our management and situation with silver in this world to name a few, that determines where our share price must go.
For arguments sake, let me say that our shares are worth $2. So if the current price is $1.70 then we say oversold. What if the fundamentals say that the inherent value is only 20 cents, then all of a sudden we are over valued by the market. It all depends on the inherent value of the resource - that is the hot air in our baloon. Winds or down drafts, may jostle it sideways or up and down but the basic principles are still there, provided the air stays hot and no one changes the laws of physics.
Our bottom should have been in August, but look where we went from December onwards and we still could equal August. Charts do not fortell this, knowing the market does.