focusing its attention upon the weak US dollar. We,

however, believe that there is far more at work here than

a mere weak US dollar; we believe that there is very real,

long term, continued demand for most commodities need

by consumers in China, India, Asia, Africa et al who are

leaping full scale from what have been heretofore 17th

century lives into those of the 21st century. It is for this

reason that copper is putting its all time highs to test even

as the US economy remains mired in recession. We note

then the chart the page previous (courtesy

Bloomberg.net) of a number of broad, commodity market

indices that broke sharply in March but which are all

moving to new multi-year highs. Recession may be the

order of the day here in the US, but it is not the order of

the day anywhere else... and certainly is not the order of

the day in Asia.

Grains were weak yesterday (although wheat was strong)

as the rains that were feared would spread have instead

been rather limited. Wheat could use the rain; corn and

soybean planting intentions do not... hence wheat rose

yesterday while the latter two "grains" fell. Wheat prices

were further helped by the newly appointed (and

confirmed) Sec'y of Agriculture Schafer who said that he's

very concerned about wheat supplies here in the US and

that he is further worried about African rust which is

presently affecting African and Middle Eastern countries,

but as yet has not hit the US. He noted that 75% of the

US wheat crop is susceptible to African rust; however,

unless we are mistaken, we've not heard of one incident

of African rust here in the US. What does the US Ag Sec'y

know that neither we nor others in the business of trading

Gold 948.95 932.20 +16.75

Silver 18.56 17.99 + .57

Palladium 463.00 442.00 +21.00

Platinum 2058.0 1973.0 +85.00

Gld/Slvr Ratio . 51.12 51.81 - .69

DJ-AIG Comm Index 215.00 212.17 + 1.1%

Reuters/Jefferies CRB 418.76 415.39 + 1.0%

We remain bullish of gold, although we are not gold bugs

and we make that case everywhere and at all times. We

are bullish of gold because gold benefits from both the

dollar's weakness and the strength of commodity prices

generally. The frenzied, late buyers who were caught as

gold broke above $1000/ounce back in March but who

were liquidated out of their positions in the eventual

collapse that always follows such frenzied buying have

been taken out of their positions and the market's health

restored. We look for new highs over the course of the

next several weeks, although we do not expect it before

the end of April. We are sufficiently long enough for the

time being however, and needn't add to the trade, nor do

we feel any urge to do so.

Note then the chart of spot gold at the upper left of p.1

We are not doctrinaire Elliott Wavers when it comes to

trading, for we find most of this arcane technical school of

thought far too complicated for our age enfeebled mind.

when the Elliotiers run off into discussions of 5th

minuettes of C-wave counter-trends, our eyes very swiftly

glaze over and we begin drooling. However, we are

reasonably impressed by how many times markets do

move in 5 waves, with the 2nd and 4th as corrections in

bull markets. Oft times the 5th and final wave is the most

violent, and it does appear that we are setting off upon

the 5th wave of the current bull move. If so, new and

material highs do indeed lie ahead. Certainly we are

positioned for that to happen.