SSO vs ECU & the human wave coming into commodities & Gold and Silver
posted on
Apr 22, 2008 05:40PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
I wanted to see how SSO has been performing versus ECU and frankly was rather surprised to see how pathetically a Billion Ounce company has performed over the duration of this unusually long downturn.
Most noticeably there is a striking similarity in how both stocks tend to follow each other up and down. Thus given the comparably poor performance of a quality company like SSO, ECU really is in no better or worse shape than Silver Standard. In fact we're all in the same boat riding out the oceans of liquidity that regularly mess around with the tiny PM markets. The smalls caps are now like a boat caught between a couple of large waves and forces of liquid cash on the sidelines - fed by the worsening credit crisis storm - are about to push us up the next big one.
So the next time you think "how can ECU trade at such depressed levels given the vast increases in resources developed over the past couple of years", one needs to ask the same question to the sector leaders. If an examination of SSO's chart also leaves you stumped despite it's incredible resource base, then odds are we're simply in the midst of a sector-wide correction which will eventually revert to the dominant trend. A growing number of analysts agree the Gold bull is set to reassert itself shortly and quite possibly lasting through even the typically weak seasonal period this time around as fears abound of the deepening derivatives crisis.
In this regard several technical experts in the field including Sinclair have commented we are at the bottom of this current downleg and the bull market will resume in short order. Furthermore, many fundamental sector analysts are joining the bull camp with each passing week because they know inflation is here to stay for quite a while and this growing recognition will feed Gold & Silver for years going forward. How could it not?
And if this wasn't enough food for thought then one also needs to question how commodities can outperform the ultimate commodities - Gold & Silver - especially at a time when the Dollar and the Financial system is under the most stress since the Great Depression? In my view this pricing discrepancy just does not compute, thus logic dictates the lagging PM markets have some catching up to do here and now.
Human nature of fear of going without Food is manifesting in some serious price action in the grains recently, and these same forces will eventually triumph in the bullion markets as well. The Silver markets work no differently than any other and Dropping Silver futures and share prices guarantee an explosion in the POS, in the face of real and sustained Silver bullion shortages.
Moreover, Joe Sixpack is feeling the full force of roaring commodity inflation around him and many have responded by scrambling to stockpile goods in the interest of protecting family. It is just a matter of time before he proceeds to the next logical step and asks how can I protect my rapidly depreciating savings? Try Gold & Silver silly. Clip this prediction if you will but one year from now I would be surprised to see SSO under a $100 and ECU under $9.