Re: Stephen Altmann
in response to
by
Welcome To The Golden Minerals HUB On AGORACOM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Message: Stephan Altman
You guys are probably right in that there are other reasons which are effecting the share price not the least of which is the sorry state of the entire junior sector. I am not selling ECU entil they are either bought out (probably by Penoles) or have a 5000 tpd operation up and running. Bulldozer, I am not a basher, but have been one of the biggest ECU supporters on Stickhouse for years. Just to lighten everyones mood and focus on some positives, here are some of my Stickhouse posts over the years:
5/8/2008:
Hey Woofer. Can dogs do math? Which is better: 3000 gram per ton over 1/2 meter or 300 gram per ton over 5 meters? Seem to me they both have the same amount of silver, only the 1/2 meter wide vein will only require a mill 20% the size of the 5 meter vein, assuming a 1 meter cut. Oh, and incase you failed elementary school, 3000 grams per ton is basically 100 ounces per ton or 300 ounces per cubic meter worth $5000 per cubic meter not including the gold, zinc, and lead. Next, assume the vein is 600 meters deep by 600 meters long. That is 180,000 m3 of rich ore and 360,000 m3 of total excavation. This ore has a current value of $900 million, which is more than twice the companies market cap, and the share price goes down 2 cents? So Woofer, the question is: do you want to own a company with $5000 per m3 rock or a company with $50 per m3 rock. If you want the $50 per m3 rock, than what are you doing here? All we got is $5000 rock.
2/13/08:
Hecla just bought the remaining 70% of the Greens Creek mine from Rio Tinto for $750 million. http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/... Hecla's CEO Phil Baker said he estimates they paid $4.50 to $5.00 per ounce silver. What does that put ECU's market cap at when we prove up our 800 million ounces? We could have a MC of $3.6 to $4.0 billion. Hecla's mine has infrastructure and so does ECU's. Hecla has permits and so does ECU. What Hecla has that ECU does not have is a real mill. Just a guess, but say our share count goes to 400 million once we prove the ounces and build the mill. This will put our share price at $9 to $10 plus what ever the silver price does between now and then. All we need is time. Say this takes 5 years and say the silver price gains equal inflation. This stock is like an inflation indexed bond with an annual yield of 38.7% to 41.7% from todays stock price. Does anyone really think that Micon would say we have an 800 million ounce potential if they were not sure of it, especially considering the recent Nova Gold fiasco by one of their competitors? I say put 10 drills on the mine and prove up the metal fast. The stock price represents the companies present value and the faster we get a large mill, then the higher the present value and the stock price.
1/31/08:
Ed, $25 and $45 per tonne sounds very good since the Ag equiv in the recent resource report was about 10 oz per tonne which is about $166 per tonne at current prices. If these guys go to 5000 tonne per day in 5 years and 10 oz per tonne thats 18.25 million oz per year and at a cash cost of $1 per ounce and silver at $16 per ounce thats $273.75 million profit per year. At a PE of 10 you figure out the share price and its a lot higher than now. Assuming a total of 400 million shares at that point this gives a share price of $6.84. Depending on the actual PE and price of silver in 5 years, this could be alot higher. If we get a billion oz of Ag equiv that over 50 years of mining so an even larger operation would be doable. We also might get bought out at some point by Penoles.
8/29/07:
Based on the grades and the dimensions of this vein (900m x 600m x 0.4m) this vein holds $3.49 billion worth of metal at current prices. This is 294,000,000 ounces silver equivalent. This vein alone is better than 90% of silver mining companies out there. Total metal value per tonne is $1,797. There could still be hope for my end of month stock price prediction of $2.45 per share.
8/29/07:
Sorry, I multiplied by 3 tonnes per cubic meter twice by mistake. Correct dollar value $1.16 billion and silver equivalent 98 million ounces. Still better than most companies total mineral holdings.
5/17/07:
ECU's 6/20/06 news release says they have found vertical continuity of the skarn of 500 meters. My rough calcs show the average skarn values to be about 3.3 ounces silver equivilent per tonne. Converting th cubic meters lets call it 10 ounces per cubic meter. If this thing is 500mx500mx500m thats 125 million cubic meters. At 10 ounces per thats 1.25 billion ounces. The company still has a long way to go to define the extents of this skarn. Also a problem is it is fairly deep and open pit may not work because of massive overburden. On the otherhand, you can move a lot of dirt for $15 billion worth of metal.
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