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Message: Commodities v.s. Financials Today

Commodities v.s. Financials Today

posted on Jun 06, 2008 02:02PM

Very significant divergence today between the commodities (CRB Index) and the bankers (BKX Index). As shown in the two charts below, the CRB index broke sharply above key resistance while the BKX Index broke sharply below key support. Next week will be critical for both to see if they resume their latest strong trends.

Although today is a memorable day on many fronts, probably the most outstanding item is the fact that the CDN$ failed to rally while the USD tanked and crude and gold surged. This is unbelievable if not a miracle! When the CDN$ hit 110 in early November 2007, crude was trading at $95 and gold $830. And yet the CDN$ closed just above 98 today??? Even the Australian$ has made major gains since November against the USD and Australia is not really a crude exporter. I guess Goldman Sachs did not call Mark Carney the "wonder kid" for nothing. Nothing like supporting the elite USD team I guess regardless of the consequences experienced by the masses.

Regards - VHF

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Chart 1: Commodities Index (+3.60% today)


Chart 2: Bankers Index (-5.25% today)


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