The thing I find most interesting about the majority of posts I find here is the varying background and knowledge levels of the participants. You help fill out the 'big picture' as I see it. I am a political scientist by schooling have been intently watching the political scene for 'signs' of what is to come economically to meet what is happening in the pure financial sphere and specifically what is happening in ECU's research, approach and long/short term planning.

The first thing that is clear: Barak Obama WILL be the next president of the United States which will be a huge boost to the US in terms of world wide popularity and confidence. There is no doubt of his election just as there is no doubt that this in general is a good thing... just look at his opposition. However, one thing is also clear and that is the pattern that is starting to emerge, where the agent of change turns tot he status quo. The man calling for new ways and faces turns to entrenched washington 'furniture' to fill posts and to provide experience which the perception is... he lacks. Obama covers his lack of true confidence with 'airs' of assertion, but beneath it is the same fears that many other potential presidents have had, from JFK to Carter & Clinton... the Republicans don't have to 'prove anything' as everyone already knows that they are the party of "war first, diplomacy only when we really have to".

Look for the clues to where we are headed. The man once renowned for the courage of conviction to push for speaking with the enemy (duh, how else does any 'civilized' nation make progress with enemies... ignoring them??), however now because the simpletons he correctly identified as bitter and shallow, he is forced to 'look tough' rather than speak intelligently. What was it he promised the Jewish the other day... a unified Jerusalem as the keystone capital of the Isreali state? Uh, what a way to make friends and influence middle easterns. You could hear the proverbial pin drop around my muslim in-laws house as there gung-ho support from the man drained away lie the colour in their faces. This is very dangerous talk... naiive speaking to bolster short sighted political goals at the expense of long term cohesive policies.

This brings us to Iran. Obama according to common perceptions is the one to lead America to a new war free world view, entrenched in liberal openess... sorry, but this is simply impossible. Presidents are owned by lobbyists and corperates either directly (Bush) or indirectly.

Obama will come to power in November and launch his first symbolic Tamahawk long range missile strike or military show of strength by February. Every president does it sooner or later, in America you better walk tall and carry a big, big stick or watch the opinion polls plummet... ask Carter. Carter is portrayed as a disastrous president, but somehow has stuck to his guns and been simply the best negotiator on the planet for decades. He has quietly quelled numerous hotspots with words. Obama will never allow himself to be seen as a wimp... he will strike symbolically. remember that Clinton did it often... Sudan is a great example, where he hit a pharmaceutical factory in error and cost the lives of tens of thousands of Africans as a direct result. For Sudan this was 9/11 times 10. No one else cares much.

Here's the rub... this time, they cannot afford it. They are bankrupt! They will be forced to keep the military presence in Iraq with the clear excuse of Americas national security (i.e. access to oil through the big contracts they signed.) Problem is the Iraqis will never allow the oil fields to really get off the ground. Iran is a whole other ball game. Iran knows that America is crippled and they are flexing their muscles in subtle ways... so is China, so is Russia, and increasingly so are the Muslim majority who hate the Saudi traitors who lead the country. What does this add up to....? Resource based economies will rule our planet for the next few decades, building enough cash reserves in the process to rule long term. So... the tie in is in the resources. It is in Canadian dollars, it is in the long term understanding that silver fundamentals do not lie. It is in understanding that new presidents and changes in leadership mean nothing for the greenback long term... it is dead. Those nations, companies and individuals with real core fundamental valuables (like a billion ounces of silver under the ground) will be the ones to survive the upcoming end of peak oil and american dominance. Silver will hit 500 an ounce and Gold will soar past 2500 within the next 5-8 years. Sound silly... yup and so did 143 dollars a barrel a few years back when it hit 18. Notice that the big upswings in metal prices take place in the evening markets in Asia in general and come down during the US trading days... how long can they short the real investors and keep things affordable? Not much longer my friends, the breakout is near...