Ed Steer comments this morning
posted on
Jul 26, 2008 08:56AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Silver and gold had some smallish gains in Far East trading on Friday morning, but once London opened, the upward momentum vanished...and then was extinguished the moment that the Comex in New York began trading. The bottom in both metals occurred shortly after 10 a.m. NY time. The ensuing rally lasted for a couple of hours before it flat-lined into the close in after hours trading on the Globex.
Once again, the 50-day moving average in gold was challenged, but not penetrated. Without doubt, there was more long liquidation on Friday...but how much won't be known until Monday morning. Options expiry is at the close of trading on Monday. If this is the best the boyz can do...then things could get real interesting from hereon in.
Open interest in gold rose 3,697 contracts on Thursday's smallish price gain. It's not possible to read anything into that, so I won't even try...and I don't have the silver o.i. number for Thursday.
The Commitment of Traders report held no real surprises. In silver, the tech funds in the Non-Commercial category pitched 2,300 of their long contracts, and the bullion banks in the Commercial category covered 2,239 short positions and pitched 129 of their long contracts...so they improved their position by 2,110 contracts. In gold, the tech funds sold 9,764 longs positions and covered 1,634 of their shorts for a difference of 8,130 contracts. On the other side of the ledger, the bullion banks went long 2,036 contracts and covered 7,480 shorts...improving their position by 9,516 contracts. This leaves the bullion banks still short a massive 345 million ounces of silver and 23.7 million ounces of gold...hardly much of an improvement at all, considering that gold is down $60 and silver is down $2+. Is this the best they can do, or are they saving it for August? As far as concentration ratios go, the '8 or less' traders/bullion banks are short 81% of the entire Comex market in both gold and silver. Without question, there has been further improvements in the COT numbers for both gold and silver since the Tuesday COT cut-off, but as I've mentioned several times earlier this week, we won't find out until next Friday...which is forever in such a quickly changing market. Here's the link to the latest COT report. Click here.
Talking about the '8 or less' or '4 or less' traders in the COT, here's a very interesting chart that's been updated from an essay Ted Butler wrote last year. It shows the number of days world production that the 4 largest and 8 largest short traders hold in a variety of commodities. Both silver and gold stand out like a sore thumb. I thank Carl Loeb for doing the heavy lifting on this.
click to enlarge |